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We're going to do a tutorial on trading at the
We're going to do a tutorial on trading at the Horizon betapro ETFs before we get started
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Today is a Fed day, of course, and we're expecting
Today is a Fed day, of course, and we're expecting the FED announcement at 2 pm
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and then the excitement to start after that, as you
and then the excitement to start after that, as you can see, the Dow diamonds have traded up and got stuck at resistance
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They hit resistance on Friday and Monday and Tuesday, we're
They hit resistance on Friday and Monday and Tuesday, we're still stuck there
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As volatility has contracted going into the FED meeting, of
As volatility has contracted going into the FED meeting, of course, after the FED meeting comes that were expecting volatility to expand dramatically of course of taking a position, just ahead of the FED meeting
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And of course how the market reacts and really, at
And of course how the market reacts and really, at the end of the day, the only thing we care about is how the market reacts
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Now, in the flea market this morning, things are very
Now, in the flea market this morning, things are very quiet out there, stock index, Futures are trading right around fair value, so it doesn't look like a lot of investors are sticking their neck out this
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Let's get back to our 2x ETFs, they're designed it
Let's get back to our 2x ETFs, they're designed it to give Twice The Daily return
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So remember that Staley? Not we clean our monthly, not
So remember that Staley? Not we clean our monthly, not yearly, the daily return
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And so here's an example from yesterday, the TSX energy
And so here's an example from yesterday, the TSX energy index was up, 129%
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And then if we go to the corresponding Horizon betapro
And then if we go to the corresponding Horizon betapro ETF it actually ended up to up 254%
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So just off by a little and that's typically what
So just off by a little and that's typically what happens, the market investors can beat up and bit down the Horizon betapro ETFs
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So they don't necessarily have to end up being exactly
So they don't necessarily have to end up being exactly two times, the move of the underlying index
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These are trading product, so don't ever think of these
These are trading product, so don't ever think of these as investing products, they are just trading products over the long-term
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They will not do very well because of the volatility,
They will not do very well because of the volatility, but we are here to capture the volatility
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So you can do crude oil, you can do gold,
So you can do crude oil, you can do gold, I, you can do silver, you can do natural gas
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Now, each one of them has his own characteristics, a
Now, each one of them has his own characteristics, a typically are the energy related
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Then you've got out of the three major index ETFs,
Then you've got out of the three major index ETFs, the NASDAQ with the, the technology stocks to buy a text
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60 is typically, the least volatile is all Got 60
60 is typically, the least volatile is all Got 60 stocks and it has the typically has the least volatility out of all of these
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So they all have their own characteristics and over time,
So they all have their own characteristics and over time, you'll get used to them
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Now, the strategy here is to be market-neutral, which means,
Now, the strategy here is to be market-neutral, which means, we're either going to be long, the bull ETF when the market is rising or long
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The bear ETF when the market is falling right now,
The bear ETF when the market is falling right now, the energy sector has been moving up
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So we are long the bull and of course at
So we are long the bull and of course at some point we're going to be long the bear but it isn't going to be today
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So we've got to some room between where we closed
So we've got to some room between where we closed yesterday and the opportune line on the bear ETF
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And we've got lots of room between where we closed
And we've got lots of room between where we closed yesterday and the lower Channel 9 on the bully ETF
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Now the full name of the Horizon beta product for
Now the full name of the Horizon beta product for the TSX 60, looks like this
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The top-of-the-range are we have not had an early-warning signal
The top-of-the-range are we have not had an early-warning signal yet but we have had a bearish reversal signal which came yesterday
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Now, at the bicycle came with the first close above,
Now, at the bicycle came with the first close above, the upper channel line, you came in the next morning and you bought it at the open
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I just below the 1650 level, then you looked up
I just below the 1650 level, then you looked up and we had the price target of 17 and 19 and then 1797
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So you've had several opportunities to sell partial positions and
So you've had several opportunities to sell partial positions and locking
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It will have to wait and see how the market
It will have to wait and see how the market reacts to the FED, announcement this afternoon, but you should have an order in up there at 1875
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Then looking at the 2x both of the S&P 500,
Then looking at the 2x both of the S&P 500, we do have an early-warning signal up there, we've had a couple of bearish reversal days
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You can see the Buy Signal back here, the next
You can see the Buy Signal back here, the next morning we trade it back in the channel so you got to buy it at a discount and the now looking up from where we started 12:50
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might have been too close for you and so you
might have been too close for you and so you got an order filled up there at 1328
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Now we're trying to get to 1406 been looking at
Now we're trying to get to 1406 been looking at the NASDAQ the NASDAQ hasn't really done anything
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If you look, you can see the pros have given
If you look, you can see the pros have given up control on the NASDAQ ETF fund
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We haven't seen a lot of downward selling pressure just
We haven't seen a lot of downward selling pressure just yet, but the pros aren't that interested in the Jack at the moment on Wednesday at close below
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857 would give us a cell signal for this particular
857 would give us a cell signal for this particular ETF if we can break out above 9/38 and 10:16, is our next profit Target in
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You should have no ordering up there to sell a
You should have no ordering up there to sell a partial position, of course, the NASDAQ looking so weak
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We could switch between the bull and the bear on
We could switch between the bull and the bear on Tuesday and a close above 921 on the bear ETF would give us a new Buy Signal now, it's important to remember that we don't always get
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by signals and sell signals on the same day so
by signals and sell signals on the same day so you could actually get kicked out of the bull ETF and not have a buy signal for the bear ETF on the same day
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If that happens to sit on your hands and wait
If that happens to sit on your hands and wait and see if the market continues in the same direction
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Now, looking at the 2x cible, for the TSX energy
Now, looking at the 2x cible, for the TSX energy index and remember this is the energy sector
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Why do some cells are? There's an early-warning signal up
Why do some cells are? There's an early-warning signal up there but we've played through it
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So the next morning he came in you bought at
So the next morning he came in you bought at the open and that we've been moving up ever
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Since you've had the chance to take money off the
Since you've had the chance to take money off the table at $50 and at 5625
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Now you still have I should have a partial position
Now you still have I should have a partial position left trying to get rid of that at 6250
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Now looking at the gold miners 2x ETF you can
Now looking at the gold miners 2x ETF you can see this sector has not been performing well for the past six months or so you can see that it was in a big bear market and
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of course if you know something in a bear Market
of course if you know something in a bear Market we're making money cuz we're long the bear ETF but here we are we've been trading sideways for a few months
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Now we're currently long, the bull ETF of things would
Now we're currently long, the bull ETF of things would change on Wednesday with a close
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So there's a good chance that we may see a
So there's a good chance that we may see a cell signal for the bowl and we need a close above 886 to give us a Buy Signal for the bear ETF on Wednesday
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And that, of course, is for the gold miners, ETF
And that, of course, is for the gold miners, ETF all for this morning's presentation, I hope you found that useful
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00:00:00Hello everyone, and welcome to Wednesday Morning.
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00:00:02It's Stephen Whiteside here
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00:00:03from TheUptrend.com, and in this presentation we're going to do
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00:00:07a tutorial on trading at the Horizons BetaPro ETFs.
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00:00:11Before we get started, today is a Fed day, of course, and we're expecting the Fed
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00:00:16announcement at 02:00 P.m., and then the excitement meant to start after that.
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00:00:20As you can see, the Dow Diamonds have traded up and got stuck at resistance.
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00:00:25They hit resistance on Friday and Monday and Tuesday.
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00:00:28We're still stuck there as volatility has contracted going into the Fed meeting.
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00:00:33Of course, after the Fed meeting comes out, we're expecting volatility to expand
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00:00:38dramatically, of course, taking a position just ahead of the Fed meeting.
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00:00:43It's a three part bet.
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00:00:44You're betting on what they say, what they do, and of course, how the market reacts.
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00:00:49And really, at the end of the day,
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00:00:51the only thing we care about is how the market reacts.
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00:00:55Now, in the pre market this morning, things are very quiet out there.
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00:00:58Stock index futures are trading right around fair value.
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00:01:01So it doesn't look like a lot of investors
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00:01:03are sticking their neck out this morning ahead of the Fed meeting.
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00:01:07Now let's get back to our 2X ETFs.
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00:01:10They're designed to give twice the daily return.
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00:01:14So remember that's daily, not weekly, not monthly, not yearly, the daily return.
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00:01:19And so here's an example from yesterday.
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00:01:21The TSX energy index was up 1.29%. If you double that, that is 2.58%. And then if we
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00:01:29go to the corresponding Horizons BetaPro ETF, it actually ended up to up 2.54%.
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00:01:36So just off by a little.
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00:01:38And that's typically what happens.
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00:01:40The market investors can bid up and bid down the Horizons BetaPro ETFs.
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00:01:46So they don't necessarily have to end up
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00:01:49being exactly two times the move of the underlying index.
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00:01:54And again, remember, these are daily returns.
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00:01:57They're not weekly, not monthly.
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00:01:58So these are not investment products.
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00:02:01These are trading products.
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00:02:02So don't ever think of these as investing products.
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00:02:06They are just trading products.
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00:02:08Over the long term, they will not do very well because of the volatility.
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00:02:13But we are here to capture the volatility.
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00:02:16Now, there's five ETFs that I have as a bundle or a portfolio.
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00:02:21There are other ETFs.
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00:02:23You can do criticism, you can do gold, you can do silver, you can do natural gas.
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00:02:28There's other ones out there.
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00:02:30These are the five core ones that I trade.
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00:02:32Now, each one of them has its own characteristics.
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00:02:35Typically the energy related ETFs are going to be the most volatile.
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00:02:40Then you've got out of the three major
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00:02:43index ETFs, the Nasdaq with the technology stocks, the biotech stocks is typically
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00:02:48more volatile than the S&P 500 and the TSX 60.
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00:02:52The TSX 60 is typically the least volatile.
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00:02:55It's only got 60 stocks and typically has the least volatility out of all of these.
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00:03:01So they all have their own characteristics and over time, you'll get used to them.
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00:03:05Now, the strategy here is to be market
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00:03:08neutral, which means we're either going to be long the bull ETF when the market is
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00:03:13rising, or long the bear ETF when the market is falling.
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00:03:17Right now, the energy sector has been moving up, so we are long the bull.
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00:03:21And of course, at some point we're going
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00:03:23to be along the bear, but it isn't going to be today.
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00:03:26So we've got some room between where we
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00:03:30closed yesterday and the upper channel line on the bare ETF.
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00:03:33And we've got lots of room between where
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00:03:35we closed yesterday and the lower channel line on the bull ETF.
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00:03:40Now, the full name of the Horizon Beta Pro product for the TSX 60 looks like this.
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00:03:46We just shortened it down to the TSX 2X bull.
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00:03:50And right now we are along this bull.
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00:03:52You can see on the Panic Zone chart that we're coming up to the top of the range.
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00:03:56We have not had an early warning signal
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00:03:58yet, but we have had a bearish reversal signal which came yesterday.
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00:04:03And so we've been along this particular ETF for a couple of weeks now.
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00:04:07The buy signal came with the first close above the upper channel line.
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00:04:11You came in the next morning and you
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00:04:12bought it at the open just below the 16.50 level.
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00:04:17Then you looked up and we had a price target of 17.19 and then 17.97. So you've
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00:04:24had several opportunities to sell partial positions and lock in some profits.
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00:04:29We took a run yesterday towards 18.75, didn't make it.
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00:04:34We traded up at that level back in September.
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00:04:37That's where we peaked up at the 18.75 level and then quickly reversed.
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00:04:41So it is doable to head up to 18.75, but we may not do it.
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00:04:47We'll have to wait and see how the market
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00:04:48reacts to the Fed announcement this afternoon.
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00:04:51But you should have an order in up there at 18.75 to sell a partial position.
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00:04:57Then looking at the 2X bull for the S&P
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00:04:59500, we do have an early warning signal up there.
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00:05:02We've had a couple of bearish reversal days.
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00:05:05The pros are still in control.
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00:05:07On Wednesday, we need a closed blow, 12.41 to give us a sell signal.
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00:05:12You can see the buy signal back here.
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00:05:14The next morning we traded back
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00:05:16in the channel, so you got to buy it at a discount.
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00:05:19And now, looking up from where we started, 12.50 might have been too close for you.
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00:05:25So you've got an order filled up there at 13.28. Now we're trying to get to 14.06.
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00:05:32Then looking at the Nasdaq.
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00:05:34The Nasdaq hasn't really done anything.
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00:05:36It was very oversold, but really hasn't picked up the pace.
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00:05:40We don't have an early warning signal there.
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00:05:42If you look, you can see the pros have
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00:05:44given up control on the Nasdaq ETF, and that's probably not a good sign.
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00:05:49We haven't seen a lot of downward selling pressure just yet,
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00:05:52but the pros aren't that interested in the Nasdaq at the moment.
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00:05:56On Wednesday, close below 8.57 would give us a sell signal for this particular ETF.
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00:06:03If we can break out above 9.38, then 10.16 is our next profit target
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00:06:08and you should have an ordering up there to sell a partial position.
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00:06:12Of course, the Nasdaq looking so weak,
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00:06:14we could switch between the bull and the bear on Tuesday and a close above
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00:06:199.21 on the Bear ETF would give us a new buy signal.
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00:06:23Now, it's important to remember that we
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00:06:25don't always get buy signals and sell signals on the same day.
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00:06:30So you could actually get kicked out
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00:06:32of the Bull ETF and not have a buy signal for the Bear ETF on the same day.
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00:06:37So just be ready if that happens to sit
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00:06:41on your hands and wait and see if the market continues in the same direction.
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00:06:47Now, looking at the 2X bull
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00:06:49for the TSX Energy Index, and remember, this is the energy sector.
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00:06:53These are stocks we're watching, not the commodities themselves.
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00:06:56There's an early warning signal up there, but we've played through it.
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00:06:59We made a new high yesterday, so there was a buy signal back there
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00:07:04and the market gapped up, filled the open gap and then moved on.
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00:07:09So the next morning you came in,
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00:07:11you bought at the open and we've been moving up ever since.
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00:07:15You've had the chance to take money off the table at $50 and at 56.
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00:07:1925 now, you still should have a partial position left.
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00:07:23Trying to get rid of that at 62. 50.
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00:07:26Now, looking at the Gold Miners 2X ETF, you can see this sector has not been
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00:07:33performing well for the past six months or so.
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00:07:36You can see that it was in a big bear market.
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00:07:39And of course, if
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00:07:41something's in a bear market, we're making money because we're along the Bear ETF.
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00:07:45But here we are, we've been trading sideways for a few months now.
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00:07:49We're currently long the bull ETF.
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00:07:51Things would change on Wednesday with a closed blow 10.60. We're trying
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00:07:57to get to 12.50 and we're having a really hard time doing that.
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00:08:02So there's a good chance that we may see a sell signal for the bull and we'd need
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00:08:08a close above 8.86 to give us a buy signal for the Bear ETF on Wednesday.
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00:08:14And that, of course, is for the Gold Miners ETF.
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00:08:18OK, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation.
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00:08:21I hope you found that useful.
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00:08:23If you have any questions at all, please drop me an email.
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00:08:26Have a great day.
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00:08:27Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.