US Market Outlook 02072024

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00:00:00

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning.
00:00:03

It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.
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com In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet.
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We only have one economic number coming
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out of any significance this morning, and that is international trade at 8:30.
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Then we have energy inventories coming out later in the morning.
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Now, there's lots of stocks in the news this morning.
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One that I know a lot of you follow is Ford, and Ford was up over 4% yesterday.
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It's up over 5% in the pre-market this
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morning, and it is currently trading above the December high.
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So a new high for this move for Ford on Wednesday morning.
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Now, the VIX moved lower yesterday.
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It's back on a sell signal, and we really don't care too much about what the VIX
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does right now unless it starts breaking out above 15.
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That would certainly tell us something new is happening in the options market.
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Now, yesterday was an inside day for the S&P 500 and for the Dow.
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We are looking at a target of 500 on the
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SPY as our next major area of resistance, and 5,000 on the index itself.
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Coming into Wednesday's trading action, we would need to see a close below $485.
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81 to give us a sell signal for the SPY.
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More conservative traders are going to be looking for a close below 482.
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Then, of course, long-term investors would
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not be disturbed until the S&P 500 closes below $464.
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17 on Friday.
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And so far this week, we're certainly not expecting that to happen.
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Now, the Dow Diamonds had an inside day yesterday.
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The Q's were able to trade slightly above the previous day's high.
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So no change in trend there.
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No change in trend for the Russell 2000 or
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for the Russell microcaps, both moving up into the channel yesterday.
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Then looking at semiconductors.
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The SOX index looks like this, and the
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semiconductor ETF that I usually quote looks like this.
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The reason I follow this one is it's part of the S&P family, the SPDR family.
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Unfortunately, a lot of you want me to
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cover this one, which certainly has a lot more volume.
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And so in the future, I will be quoting the SMH as you have requested.
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And you can see it is up yesterday.
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It was up at the $195 level as up at the high of the day.
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And we are looking We're waiting to see if
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it can break out and make a higher high on Wednesday.
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Now, what happened on Tuesday?
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Well, materials were the big winner, while technology stocks
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were the losers on the day, and materials are still on a sell signal.
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That would change on Wednesday with a close above $83.
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03.
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No joy for real estate.
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We've got health care making a new high.
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Lots of big cap health care stocks have
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had huge run-ups over the in the past couple of weeks.
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Industrials made a new closing high yesterday.
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No change in trend for consumer discretionary.
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Energy stocks in the US still on a buy signal.
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No change in trend for utilities.
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And then looking at financials, Very quiet day for financials on Tuesday.
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Bank stocks still on a sell signal, and
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the regional bank still on a sell signal, holding the recent low.
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And of course, the market is a little
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concerned about what's happening in the regional banking sector, which could
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roll over to the rest of the market if something major breaks down.
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Consumer staples still on a buy signal, no change there.
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Communication services, we saw a pullback
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yesterday, closing below the previous day's low, and that could be a concern
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going forward, but right now we are still on a buy signal.
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No change in trend for technology stocks.
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Then we saw transports move up.
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The transports were not part of the list
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we started with, but I just wanted to throw them in there that the We are back
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on a buy signal and actually closed above the previous week's high.
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Next up, let's take a look at the world of commodities.
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Starting with crude oil, the USO is still on a sell signal.
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Now, we do have energy inventories coming out later this morning, which could
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certainly change the direction of this ETF.
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Now, it is looking bullish, even though we're still on a sell signal here.
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Notice we put in a recent higher high, and we've put in a series of higher lows.
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So that is a bullish chart pattern, even though we're still on a sell signal.
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That is also true for gasoline, which
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recently put in a higher high and a higher low.
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So we're still on a sell signal here.
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For gasoline, we would need a close above 64.
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22 on Wednesday to give us a buy signal.
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Unfortunately, no joy for natural gas.
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We made a new closing low for this move yesterday, still clustering around the 18.
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75 level.
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If we want to break down from here, then 15.
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63 would be our next target to the downside.
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Looking at the metals, we've got the GLD trading in the channel.
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It's up a penny in the pre-market last time I checked.
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Looking for a close above 189.
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01 to give us a new buy signal, get us back on track for the GLD.
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No joy for a palladium, no joy for
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platinum, and no joy for silver coming into Wednesday's trading action.
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Last up this morning, let's take a look at the Magnificent 8.
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And starting with AMD, it is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close.
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No change in trend for Amazon, no change
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in trend for Alphabet, still on a sell signal here.
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Then no change in trend for Microsoft, looking for a close below $400.
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52 on Wednesday They did give us a sell signal.
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Nvidia made a new high yesterday, trading
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right over the $700 level before starting to pull back.
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No change in trend there.
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And then looking at Shopify, we had a
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reversal last week week, but we're not going anywhere.
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So looking for a close on Wednesday below $79.
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44.
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And then Tesla was up on the day, still trading below the lower channel line,
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looking for a close on Wednesday above $195.
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52.
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And so far, what we're seeing in the
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pre-market, we're not seeing that just yet.
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And again, we are looking for our first close above this bar.
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And yes, we have traded above it, but we haven't closed above it.
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And that's the first thing we're really looking for.
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Our last chart of the day is Netflix.
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Netflix is still on a buy signal here.
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We've got an early warning signal yesterday closed in the channel.
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So we're looking for a close on Wednesday below $546.
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80.
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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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So far, it looks like we're going to have a fairly quiet open on Wednesday.
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Have a great day, folks, and the next time
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you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

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