Morning Market Outlook 12122023

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from T heUpTrend.com Well, this morning is all
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about the CPI numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning.
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I don't think there's going to be a lot of volatility off these numbers.
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I don't think there's going to be a big surprise.
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But whatever happens, it's going to feed
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into how people think the Fed is going to act in 2024.
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Now, yesterday morning, we started off looking at Bitcoin and Ethereum, and we
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were looking at the weekly charts and we were looking at upside projections.
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At the same time, right after we did that, both Bitcoin and Ethereum sold off.
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Both are still on buy signals.
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That has not changed.
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But this rally is pretty long in the tooth.
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I remember this rally started off a peak in the VIX, and then as the VIX started to
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come down, Bitcoin and Ethereum started to go up.
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I think if the VIX starts to go up,
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Bitcoin and Ethereum will probably come down.
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For the VIX, we're looking for a close on
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Tuesday above 13.43 to change the tone of the market.
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Looking at the US dollar index, it continued to move higher, and that's
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probably not good for the price of gold right now.
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Looking at the bond market, we saw the TLT
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and the XBB and the EMB and the JNK all pull back slightly on Monday, not enough
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to give us any sell signals, so no change in trends for the bond market.
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Let's move from the world of bonds to the world of commodities.
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We saw a selling in most of the major
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commodities yesterday, starting with the GLD and then the SLV.
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Then looking at Palladium, we were up slightly on the day, did not close above
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the previous day's high, so nothing going on there.
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Then a small pullback in platinum.
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Looking at the stocks, we saw the GDX and
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the XGD continue to move lower, and we saw the SIL also continue to move lower.
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Most of the losses were recovered going into the close.
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There are certainly some interest in the
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miners, but unfortunately, it's not enough to change the trend on Tuesday.
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Looking at the energy sector, we saw the USO trade up slightly yesterday.
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We saw a little selling in gasoline and
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more selling in natural gas, which gapped lower yesterday.
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Then looking at energy stocks on the TSX,
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we were down another 1.22%. Now, if you were with us recently, we were
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watching to see if the XEG could hold the 16.02 level.
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Of course, if that were to break, then we would look two lines down.
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That would be the new playing field. What happened?
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Well, we've traded down to that target.
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If we continue to move lower from here, 14.45 could be our next target if we start
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breaking down below 15.23. Now, the TSX Energy stocks have broken
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through the bottom of the Fly Paper Channel, joining US energy stocks, which
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were already trading below the Fly Paper Channel,.
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And so that's a very bear sign for the energy sector going into 2024.
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Next up, let's take a look at the Magnificent Eight.
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And these stocks all look like they're
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topping at the moment, and money is coming out of these stocks going into other high
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tech stocks, which are doing fairly well at the moment.
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Alphabit's struggling.
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It got a negative court ruling yesterday,
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and it is down slightly in the premarket this morning.
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Looking for a close on Tuesday below 133.59. For Amazon, we're looking for a
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close below 144.41. For Apple, we're looking for a close below
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190.49. Apple is the best performer of this group at the present time.
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Then looking at Meta, we traded down
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through the lower channel line yesterday, so we could be back on a sell signal on
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Tuesday with a close blow, 321.91. Then looking at Microsoft, looking for a
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close above 375.08 to give us a new buy signal on Tuesday.
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Then looking at nVidIA, and this is the big change here.
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Money has come out of nVidIA and gone into other chip stocks.
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We'll look at that in a second.
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For nVidIA, we're looking for a close above 475.
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73 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal.
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There's the Semiconductor sector making a
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new high for this move on Monday being led higher by Advanced Micro Devices.
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But the biggest winner on Monday was Broadcom, which was up 9% on the day.
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Then looking at Shopify in New York, we're
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looking for a close below $70.90 on Tuesday.
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In Toronto, we're looking for a close
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below 96.48 to give us a sell signal on Tuesday.
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Last up, trading water here.
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We've got Tesla on a buy signal, but hasn't been going anywhere for a while.
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Still stuck in that area of the open gap.
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Even though we filled the gap a while ago, we're still trading in that area.
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Looking for a close on Tuesday below 235.
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56 to give us a sell signal for Tesla.
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Let's finish off today's presentation
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looking at the ARK Invest ETFs, and they're all doing pretty good.
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The only one that's really struggling here
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is Genomics, and it has not gone up in a straight line.
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We saw a pullback here in early November, and we've struggled to move higher.
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But then if you look at the Innovation ETF, we're one day off a new high.
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Then we've got the Industrials doing well,
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we've got Space doing well, and we've got the Internet doing well.
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And so all areas of the art invest ETFs,
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except Genomics, have been doing well over the last month.
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Okay, folks, that is all for this
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morning's presentation, waiting to see how the world reacts to the CPI numbers.
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Then, of course, we've got the Fed coming out on Wednesday, and that, of course,
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could totally change the direction of the market.
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Enjoy the rest of your day.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

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