Stock Market Timing Television - 07262023

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Godo Morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.

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com.

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In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are slightly below fair value.

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Commodities are mixed with crude oil lower while gold is higher on Wednesday morning.

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There is a lot of individual stock action

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happening this morning as the market reacts to a whole slew of earnings.

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But the main focus today, of course, is going to be the Fed.

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The market believes that the Fed is going to raise by 25 basis points.

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If they do anything but that, there's

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going to be extra volatility this afternoon.

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We always expect volatility to expand

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after 2 PM on Fed Day, and we certainly believe that's going to be the case today.

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Looking at the fear index, we've been

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treading water for the past couple of days in the channel that is neutral.

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We are still technically on a sell signal

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which is supportive for higher stock prices.

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That could change on Wednesday if the VIX

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were to close above $14.20. If we want the market to continue to move

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higher, we need the VIX to start breaking down below 13.55. Now, the media is still

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focused on the great run that the DOW is having at the moment.

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They'd probably be better off looking at

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the DOW Transports, which have had an amazing run since the start of June.

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S&p 500 closed slightly higher yesterday.

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The Nasdaq closed slightly higher.

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The Nasdaq is still trading in the channel.

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So there's a technical mathematical possibility of a sell signal on Wednesday.

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Then looking at the Russell 2000, still trading above the upper channel line, and

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the Semiconnectors are looking very similar to the overall Nasdaq.

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Then we see gold and silver stocks moved up nicely on Tuesday, and we've got gold

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continuing to trade higher on Wednesday morning.

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We'll take a look at that a little later in the presentation.

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Inside day for US Financials, we saw the

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US Bank stocks make a new high before reversing.

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We saw our regional banks make a new high before reversing.

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A lot of that volatility had to do with a couple of regional bank stocks.

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Pacwest was down over 27 % on Tuesday.

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So you come in this morning, you check what's going on in the premarket, you know

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that technically we're back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close.

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But you look at the premarket activity and guess what?

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We're up nearly 30 % in the premarket.

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So you can waive off that sell signal or

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you can take that sell signal and sell it into this up move that we're seeing in the

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premarket, which doesn't take out Monday's high.

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It just brings us back to where we were trading on Monday.

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Then the other stock in this equation is Banc of California.

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It was up over 7 % yesterday.

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Big up move for this stock.

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If you were trading this stock, if you

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were coming into yesterday's trading action and you were long this stock,

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if you've ever been to, had any of our training sessions here, we would have had

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orders in at 14.06 and 15.63, and both of those would have got filled yesterday.

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So you would have got a filled up at 15.63. And of course, the stock came back

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and closed at 14.62. So congratulations to anyone trading Bank of California.

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Looking at those big cap technology

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stocks, we expect some trend changes from today's activity.

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There's lots going on in the pre market.

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There's a possibility of a new buy signal for Alphabet on Wednesday.

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Amazon is trading lower in the premarket, so not expecting a trend change there.

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Apple is fairly quiet this morning.

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Had an inside day on Tuesday, and of

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course, an inside day is a day of indecision, a pause day, and they

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certainly are pausing ahead of the Fed meeting.

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Then we've got Meta trading below the lower channel line.

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It traded higher yesterday, but still on a sell signal.

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We've got Microsoft trading up to the upper channel line on Tuesday.

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It is down in the premarket this morning,

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so not expecting a buy signal on Wednesday.

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We've got Netflix, very quiet trading on

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Tuesday, still on a sell signal here, so no change in trend.

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Then NVIDIA looking just like the SOX Index itself, trading up to the upper

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channel line, so possibility of a buy signal.

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And then we've got Tesla still on a sell signal, no change there.

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Looking at crypto, we still have both Bitcoin and Ethereum on sell signals.

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Yesterday was an inside day.

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So a lot of the markets were pausing on Tuesday ahead of the Fed meeting.

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And then the two big cap crypto stocks that we have in our database, Coinbase,

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still on a buy signal that would change on Wednesday with a close below 95.

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And then we've got Marathon

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on a sell signal as of Tuesday's closing just below the lower channel line.

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Let's finish off looking at commodities.

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And when we look at the GLD, we're still on a buy signal here trading higher.

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We've got Palladian, we've got Platinum,

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and we've got Silver all still on buy signals.

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That's helping the overall mining sector.

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Looking at gold stocks, still on a buy signal for the GDX.

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Silver stocks, still on a buy signal for the SLV.

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Then moving over to the energy sector.

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Unfortunately, this doesn't look good for

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the inflation picture, which, of course, the Fed is focused on fighting.

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There's crude oil making a new high for this move.

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Little pullback there inside day for a gas lean ahead of the Fed meeting.

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And then natural gas trading higher on Tuesday.

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Then looking at the stocks themselves, the

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big cap energy stocks were all up yesterday.

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Oil and gas equipment makers making a new high for this move.

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And then we had a new high for oil and gas explorers on Tuesday.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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As I mentioned, there's a lot of

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individual stock activity in the premarket this morning.

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The overall tone is still slightly to the downside.

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Of course, everybody's sitting on their

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hands waiting for the Fed meeting this afternoon.

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Enjoy the rest of your day.

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Next time you'll hear my voice, is on Thursday morning.

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