Did Mining Stocks Top 03202024

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.

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com In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet.

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Stock index futures and commodities are trading right around fair value.

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It is a Fed day, so of course, we're

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expecting volatility to expand after 2:00 PM this afternoon.

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Now, the VIX is on a sell signal that's supportive for higher stock prices.

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There's quite a divergence between the VIX

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itself and the overall stock market, whether you're looking at the S&P 500 or

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the TSX, They've been making higher highs in 2024.

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You think the VIX would be making lower

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lows, but we've been creeping up here making higher lows and higher highs.

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So options traders are a bit nervous at

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this time and not as bullish as the overall stock market.

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So at some point that may resolve and the VIX could continue to move lower, but you

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would have to expect that the stock market wants to take a break here and pull back

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at some point in the not so distant future.

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Now, Bitcoin is back on a sell signal as

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of Tuesday's close, joining Ethereum already on a sell signal.

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Looking at Intel this morning, it's in the news.

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It's trading higher on news that it's partnering with the US government.

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So far, it's not up enough to give us a

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buy signal, but that could change by the end of the day.

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Of course, there's a huge disconnect

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between what's been happening with Intel and what's been happening with NVIDIA.

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NVIDIA traded down to the lower channel line yesterday before recovering,

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so it closed below yesterday's low would give us a new sell signal on Wednesday.

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Now, with the Fed meeting, you would

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expect the volatility in the bond market this afternoon.

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The TLT and the XBB are both still on sell signals.

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The XBB moved up yesterday on news from the Canadian Central Bank.

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Now, currencies could also be volatile this afternoon.

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We've had the US dollar index

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moving higher over the last week, and correspondingly, the Euro, Canadian

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dollar, Australian dollar all moving down over the last few days.

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Now, looking at the world of mining, we're starting off with copper.

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Copper looks like it peaked on Monday, pulled back on Tuesday.

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So that certainly looks like a potential

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top as we closed below the previous day's low.

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The pros are starting to give up control.

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They certainly haven't done so.

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When you're looking at a chart, for example, for the price of copper, you're

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not going to see a lot of the public ever taking control.

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There's very few individual copper traders in the copper market.

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It's usually big institutions or global companies.

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Now, looking at the Copper Miners ETF,

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again, it looks like we may have put in a top here.

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We made a new high on Monday, pulled back

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on Tuesday, and we'll have to see if we keep going from here.

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Obviously, you've had some opportunities

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to take some money off the table as this ETF has been moving higher.

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Now, broadly enough, some of the biggest mining companies in the world really

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haven't taken advantage of rising commodity prices, and that Maybe because

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they're overly hedged and a short term upward movement in, say,

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the price of copper isn't going to help the BHP or Rio Tinto or Vale, both are up

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over the past couple of days, but certainly have not been moving in sync

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with both copper and gold and silver over the past few weeks.

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Now, Southern Copper looks like it topped on Monday and pulled back on Tuesday.

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It looks like First Quantum made a high on Friday and has started to pull back.

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And it looks like Teck peaked in the

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middle of last week and has started to pull back.

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Again, we don't have any sell signals coming into Wednesday's trading action,

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but certainly it looks like this sector of the market may have topped.

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Looking at the price of gold, We've been

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in the channel for the past couple of days.

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A close on Wednesday below $2,164.

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40 would give us a new sell signal for the futures contract.

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For the GLD, we're looking for a close on Wednesday below $198.

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34.

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We've had several opportunities to take money off the table at $193.

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75 and then up at 200.

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As you can see, 200 being a big round

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number, the GLD has been clustering around it over the past few days.

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Now, looking at gold miners themselves,

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the gold miners ETF has given us a couple of early warning signals up here.

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We actually traded up to the open gap, and the top of that open gap was at $30.

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50, and we traded as high as $30.

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49 before we started to pull back.

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Now, the GDX is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close.

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For the junior miners, we're still looking for a close below $35.

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39 on Wednesday.

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Looking at the TSX at the XGD, we need a close on Wednesday below $16.

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83. We closed at $16.

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87 on Tuesday.

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And looking at the leveraged ETFs, the 2X

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in the US, on a sell signal while the bear ETF is still on a sell signal.

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So we're looking for a close on Wednesday above $11.

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30.

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And then looking at the 2X ETFs on the TSX, still looking for a close below $12.

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07 on Tuesday for For the Bull ETF, for

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the Bear ETF, we're looking for a close above $5.

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73.

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Now, looking at individual stocks, Barrick rolled over yesterday.

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It is back on a sell signal.

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Agnico Eagle was the big winner for this move, and we're for a close below $72.

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77 on Wednesday to give us a sell signal.

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We've got B2Gold back on a sell signal.

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So this is the time and place we should

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evaluate which gold stocks you're following.

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Some of them moved up with the price of gold with the index and the ETFs

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themselves, and some of them were left far behind.

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And so you may want to upgrade the gold stocks that you're following at this time.

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Now, looking at the price of silver, it

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looks like it peaked on Friday and it's starting to pull back.

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We're still above the upper channel line,

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so not overly worried coming into Wednesday's trading action.

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Then looking at the SLV, it looks like it

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peaked on Friday, and just like the price of copper, it's been coming down.

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We're still above the upper channel line.

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So yes, on Wednesday, we're looking for a close below $22.

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22 to give us a daily sell signal.

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Not expecting that to happen on Wednesday.

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And if it doesn't, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily.

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Now, looking at the Silver Miners ETF, we pulled back in the channel yesterday.

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We need a close on Wednesday below $25. 23.

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Then looking at some individual stocks, Pan American Silver in New York, we're

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looking for a close on Wednesday below $13.

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67. We closed at $13.

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70 yesterday.

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Then on the TSX, we're looking for a close below $18.

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50.

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Then looking at Wheaton, Wheaton is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close.

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Then looking at First Majestic, we need a close on Wednesday below $7.

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01 to give us a new daily sell signal.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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It certainly looks like the mining stocks have topped and are starting to roll over.

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We do have some sell signals, but we don't

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have all sell signals coming into Wednesday's trading action.

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Looking for volatility to expand this afternoon after 2:00 PM.

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Then we'll be back on Thursday morning to

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look at how the market reacted to what the Fed It does on Wednesday afternoon.

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Enjoy the rest of your day.

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And again, next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

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Thursday morning.

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