Stock Market Timing Television - 05262023

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Hey, good morning everyone and welcome to Friday Morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from the
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uptrend.com in the pre market this morning stock index futures are above fair value.
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So we are looking for a little buying at the open on Friday morning.
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Now yesterday was a very bad day for the
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stock market and we'll start off with a couple of charts.
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US dollar index kept moving higher yesterday.
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At the same time bond yields continue to
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rise across the spectrum from five year to 30 year.
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They all moved up on Thursday.
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Now Thursday was a bad day for the stock
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market even though the headline might not tell you.
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So we are coming up to a three day long weekend.
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We are coming up to month end.
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Both have a bullish bias. Seasonally.
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This is also a good time to be in the stock market.
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You can see seasonally, we usually get a
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rally into the first week of June and then a pullback into the end of June.
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And of course the end of June is the end
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of the quarter and then we get the summer rally.
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That's historically what happens.
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So seeing some buying coming into Friday
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morning before a long weekend, not that unexpected.
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Of course we do have the debt ceiling negotiations hanging over our heads and
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that could actually crash the stock market if things do not work out.
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Now while most of the stock market was
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going down on Thursday, nvidia was leading the tech stocks higher once again.
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And of course this is one of those big cap
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tech stocks that has been keeping the market afloat in 2023.
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And so yesterday we came in already at the
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top of the panic zones and so we saw a panic buying yesterday.
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A lot of that was probably short covering.
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I think they had over $9 billion worth of Nvidia stock shorted going into yesterday.
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And if you were short Nvidia for some
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strange reason, I have no idea why you would be short Nvidia.
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Apparently some people think the stock is overvalued.
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Well if it was overvalued on Wednesday then it is certainly overvalued today.
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And so here we are making a new high for Nvidia.
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Where did we get to?
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Well, if we look at the weekly chart from last Friday, we knew that 343.
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75 is where the stock topped out in 2021
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and then above that was 375 on the monthly chart.
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Our next price target was 375.
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We were stuck at 312 50.
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We got to lock in profits there and then we popped yesterday.
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So if you had an order in at 343.
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75 or 375, they both got filled at the open which was up at 385.
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23.
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So congratulations to anyone who locked in some profits yesterday on Nvidia.
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I would be a seller of Nvidia if we
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started to break down below yesterday's low.
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Obviously our lower channel line is currently at 301.76 and you don't want to
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give up all of those profits if we're up over 375.
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So yesterday's low was 366. 35.
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I would liquidate the remainder of my
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position if Nvidia started trading below that level over the next few days.
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Then looking at the VIX, the VIX pulled
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back yesterday looking for a close on Friday below 17.07.
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Then looking at the Dow, we made a new low yesterday.
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We made a new low for the TSX.
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The S&P 500 came back.
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Now we had a sell signal from Wednesday's close.
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You come in on Thursday morning, you see we're going to open at 414.
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74. So you can wave off that sell signal.
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Or if you took the sell signal, you got to sell at a higher level.
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So congratulations there.
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And then of course, the Nasdaq made a new high yesterday.
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We saw a big move up for semiconductors.
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Of course Nvidia being a semiconductor.
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Now the rest of the market, well, looking
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at Canadian small caps, they've started to break down below the March lows.
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We've got micro caps moving down yesterday in the US.
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Mid cap stocks are sitting right at the lower channel line.
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So any lower close on Friday would give us a sell signal for the Ishares for the
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Russell 2000 and the Ishares for the microcap sector.
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We are back on a sell signal as of Thursday's close now.
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Big move down yesterday for Consumer staples.
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Retail stocks trading below the March lows.
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Big down day yesterday for Healthcare.
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Biotechs back on a sell signal as of Thursday's close.
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Big down day for pharmaceuticals.
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Then we had materials, metals and mining making new lows.
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Utilities, big down day for utilities.
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So you can see that a lot of the market
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was heading in the opposite direction of Nvidia.
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Then looking at the Canadian market, of
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course it was all about financials and bank stocks.
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We had bank earnings out all this week and
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that's put downward pressure on the financial sector.
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Then energy stocks pulled back yesterday, still on a buy signal.
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That would change on Friday for the index with a closed blow 223.
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16.
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Then looking at gold stocks, they continued to move lower.
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So did global mining stocks and material stocks.
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All made new lows yesterday.
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We saw a new closing low yesterday for Canadian real estate.
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Then we got telecom stocks down 1.77%. Big down day for the telecom sector.
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And then last up we had utilities making a new low for this move.
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Let's finish off today's presentation taking a look at commodity prices and
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copper held the previous day's low yesterday.
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I'd get more excited if we closed above the previous day's high.
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There's the price of gold making a new low.
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The price of silver making a new low.
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Crude oil pulled back into the channel.
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A close below 69.
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56 on Friday would give us a sell signal.
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And there's natural gas coming right back
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down and sitting on the lower channel line.
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So any lower close on Friday would give us a new sell signal.
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Okay, folks, that is all for today's presentation.
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Looking for a higher open on Friday.
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Going into a three day long weekend. US.
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Markets will be closed on Monday.
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Canadian markets will be open on Monday, but we're not going to post any charts.
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Whatever happens to the Canadian market on Monday is kind of irrelevant since there's
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not going to be any adult supervision from the US.
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Market.
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And we'll find volumes down probably about 40% on Monday.
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Enjoy the rest of the day.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Sunday.

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