Stock Market Timing 09292023

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
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com.
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Well, this is the last trading day of the month, and what do you know?
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The futures are trading higher this morning.
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We've got stock index futures and commodities trading up in the premarket.
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We do have economic numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning that could certainly
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change the overall direction of the market.
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But of course, month end usually has a
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bullish bias to it, and that's exactly what we're seeing right now.
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Now, the stock markets traded higher on Thursday, and they got a little support
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from the US dollar index that had a small pullback on Thursday.
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We also saw a small pullback for bond
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yields after making a new high, and then we had a small pullback in crude oil.
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Crude oil was down $1.71 yesterday.
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It's up a dollar last time I checked in the premarket.
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So not looking for a sell signal for crude oil on Friday.
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Now looking at the seasonality chart for the S&P 500, we are expecting buying into
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the middle of September and then selling going into the end of September.
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That's pretty much what we saw.
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Then we're looking for some buying into the first week of October.
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That may have started yesterday, and then additional selling and possibly a
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lower low in October before the market starts to move up into the end of year
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seasonality trend that takes us higher into year end.
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Now, just a different version of this chart.
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This chart is up to date, whereas this one is from 1990 to 2009.
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The reason I want to show you this
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is that the last 13 years or so has really smoothed out this
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chart and has taken a lot of the emphasis off weakness in October.
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We used to fear October a lot more than we
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feared September, and now they're basically equal.
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This chart doesn't even include the crash of '87, which happened in October.
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Previously, the market was a lot more concerned about October than it is today.
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Well, hopefully, that'll be the case this year.
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The sell in May and go away crowd, of
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course, they're going to sell on May first and come back on November first.
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Why are they coming back on November first?
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Well, seasonally, the period from November to the end of the
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year is very strong and we certainly want to participate in that when the market
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does turn around and that may have started yesterday.
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We'll just have to wait and see how much follow through to the upside we get.
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Now, the VIX made a new high on Wednesday,
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pulled back on Thursday, closed below the previous days low.
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So that's bearish for the VIX and bullish for the stock market.
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We don't have the VIX back on a sell signal just yet.
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We don't have the VIX below the Fly Paper channel just yet.
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But this is the time and place where things like this could start.
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We'll just have to wait and see.
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Now looking at the major US index ETF
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starting with the Dow, we did close above the previous day's high for the Dow, but
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the S&P 500 and Nasdaq certainly did, as did the Russell 2000.
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There is some bullishness out there, not
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enough to start a new trend, but enough to get people's attention on Thursday.
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Microcaps also traded up and closed above the previous day's high.
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This could be the making of a bottom for the market?
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Only time will tell.
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Now, retail stocks were the big winners in the US on Thursday.
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Oddly enough, a couple of big retailers made 52-week lows yesterday.
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We'll take a look at that in a minute.
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Utilities were the big losers in the US.
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What didn't work and what worked on the Dow?
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Well, the big winner on the Dow was Intel followed by Caterpillar.
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Caterpillar needs a close above 278.47 to give us a buy signal on Friday.
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You can see we held the August lows for
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Caterpillar, so that could be bullish going forward.
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Then looking at what didn't work on the
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Dow, well, Boeing was the biggest loser followed by IBM.
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Then making 52-week lows yesterday,
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Advanced Auto Parts continues to drift lower day after day.
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Then we also saw a Dollar General and
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target make 52-week lows, even though retail was the big winner on Thursday.
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Then just a stock, you call it Chewy or call it Pets.
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Com. They both look pretty similar.
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And if you haven't been in the market for a long time, pets.
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Com was one of those big stocks that blew
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up during the dot com bubble and crashed and burned and went away.
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And of course, Chewy could be continuing that tradition today.
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Now, Newmont also made a new 52-week low yesterday, as did some other gold stocks.
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Looking at the Canadian market, not as
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much enthusiasm as we saw in the US market.
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The TSX had an inside day, little more strength for the TSX 60.
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Then mid caps, small caps, and micro caps were all up on the day, but not a major
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trend change for any of those areas of the market.
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Now, base metals was the big winner on
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Thursday, and the big loser was marijuana stocks.
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The gold stocks ended the day after making
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a new low, ended the day up a penny, looking at the iShare's global gold ETF.
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Then energy stocks ended the day up three cents after making a new high.
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They're still on a buy signal.
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Now, the big winner on Thursday was Teck, which is back on a buy signal followed by
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CCL Industries, which needs a close $57.41 on Friday to generate a buy signal.
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A new low for this move for TC Energy and then Algonquin Power had another bad day.
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It made a 52-week low on Thursday.
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B2Gold, when I mentioned, Newmont.
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Previously, Newmont in Canada also made a new low yesterday.
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B2gold made a 52-week low on Thursday.
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Now, the TD Bank appears to still be the strongest Canadian bank, while Bank of
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Nova Scotia continues to look like the weakest Canadian bank.
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Right now it is holding its August lows,
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so that could be a good thing going forward.
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We'll just have to wait and see.
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Shopify made a new low yesterday.
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It's holding 6,875.
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If that breaks, our next mathematical
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target is 6,250, but you'll see that the bottom of the open gap is just above that.
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That could also act as a price magnet if Shopify starts breaking down below 6,875.
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Let's finish off with a quick look at the major telecom stocks.
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They all had inside days on Thursdays after making new lows on Wednesdays.
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So BCE, Rogers, and TELLUS all looking pretty similar at the moment.
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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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Enjoy the rest of your day.
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Enjoy your weekend.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

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