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While Nasdaq futures are slightly lower Commodities or higher across
While Nasdaq futures are slightly lower Commodities or higher across the board on Thursday morning
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Looking at the price of copper and copper is often
Looking at the price of copper and copper is often referred to as Doctor copper a, it's considered a global economic barometer mostly to do with construction activity around the world, on a short-term basis that starts
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We had a high here in August a lower high
We had a high here in August a lower high in September, and then a lower high here, we had a lower low, a low there, and then a lower low
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Do we break it? And, you know, I would imagine
Do we break it? And, you know, I would imagine that we're probably going to break it now, if we look at a longer-term monthly chart of copper, See, I did that
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We've seen some weakness in 2022 at most of that
We've seen some weakness in 2022 at most of that has to do with the construction weakness in China
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It is going to make another new low today as
It is going to make another new low today as the market traded down overnight
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So when the Chinese ETFs open up a New York
So when the Chinese ETFs open up a New York at 9:30, they're all going to trade lower on Thursday morning
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Now, the other economic barometer that I like to watch
Now, the other economic barometer that I like to watch closely is the socs index at the Chips actor at chips are basically included in everything that's manufactured today
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But you know, the whole world of the automobile industry
But you know, the whole world of the automobile industry is totally controlled by the chip sector and chips are still on a cell signal right now, inside day yesterday and we look it up monthly chart
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So the first time something is happening, of course, is
So the first time something is happening, of course, is going to be a monthly close above the previous month's High and I'm not expecting that to happen in October
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I looking at a daily chart of the pros in
I looking at a daily chart of the pros in the public of, they're still in their own corners, and doesn't look like the pros want to take control right away
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Now, the chip stocks that I watch the most and
Now, the chip stocks that I watch the most and I really try to focus on a handful of stocks
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You know, looking in the dark corners of the stock
You know, looking in the dark corners of the stock market for something to do
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I trade the stocks that I follow it and that's
I trade the stocks that I follow it and that's it, and AMG is still on a cell signal here
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Looks like it's a building a area of support and
Looks like it's a building a area of support and spin trading sideways for the past couple of weeks
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And so yes, it was inside their clothes about 6145
And so yes, it was inside their clothes about 6145 would give us a Buy Signal on Thursday
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It looked like the market was more interested in Nvidia
It looked like the market was more interested in Nvidia than AMD and that is still true
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We traded through the upper Channel 9, on Tuesday and
We traded through the upper Channel 9, on Tuesday and inside day on Wednesday at close above 12317, would give us a bicycle on Thursday for NVIDIA
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Now, in Tel at is, you know, a widely watched
Now, in Tel at is, you know, a widely watched the stock because it's part of the Dow 30
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But the right now, it's been trading in the channel
But the right now, it's been trading in the channel for the past 5 days and looking for a close on Thursday, above at 2662
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Now, if you look at the average true range of
Now, if you look at the average true range of intelligence currently just a little over 4%, I which is a quite the big four of, you know, that the average stock on the stock market, but
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The chip sector is something more like Nvidia over 6%
The chip sector is something more like Nvidia over 6% or AMD which is up
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So if you're trying to trade for capital gains, you
So if you're trying to trade for capital gains, you know, you want a stock that has a fairly normal average to range for the sector and not go after the stock with the lowest average true
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So if you want more volatility, You want more opportunity
So if you want more volatility, You want more opportunity for capital gains
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You stick with the ones with the higher average to
You stick with the ones with the higher average to range and of course you know if you're risk-averse I you don't go after stocks like this because 646%
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Now, the keys I had an inside day yesterday, so
Now, the keys I had an inside day yesterday, so we're still on a cell signal here that would change on Thursday with a close above to 7319 Tesla's in the news, came up with earnings, it's
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down in the pre-market this morning, I still above last
down in the pre-market this morning, I still above last week's low so they haven't been broken yet, so that's a good sign
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Hear things could turn around on Thursday, but the in
Hear things could turn around on Thursday, but the in the pre-market this morning they are trading lower
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They're always is Elon Musk just thinking about doing share
They're always is Elon Musk just thinking about doing share BuyBacks and then the Market's looking at the fact that he loved musk is probably going to have to sell more of his Tesla shares to afford
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Which of course he has an obligation to do now,
Which of course he has an obligation to do now, IBM's, in the news this morning, it's on a by signal right now is trading higher in the pre-market right off of the high from a couple
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So 1:25 is our mathematical Target but we did poker
So 1:25 is our mathematical Target but we did poker head above that back in October
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I haven't traded IBM and probably 20-25 years because it's
I haven't traded IBM and probably 20-25 years because it's got a very low average to range at 263%
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It's not a Technology stock, and that's probably why I
It's not a Technology stock, and that's probably why I stopped at trading
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It's not a Technology stock anymore, but it is widely
It's not a Technology stock anymore, but it is widely followed because it's part of the Dow 30
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So, you know, it's got an average average true range,
So, you know, it's got an average average true range, but that's not what I'm looking for
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I'm a more aggressive investor then I'll probably the average
I'm a more aggressive investor then I'll probably the average investor out there and look at the bond market bonds made new lows yesterday and bond yields made new highs
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So are the market has been holding up fairly well,
So are the market has been holding up fairly well, as the yields continue to move So I would have expected the stock market to sell off more on the news of these new higher yields are
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there's the TLT making a new low, there's the xp
there's the TLT making a new low, there's the xp be in Toronto, making a new low
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We've got to Emerging Market bonds holding up fairly well
We've got to Emerging Market bonds holding up fairly well and then the junk bonds are still on a Buy Signal here from Tuesday's trading Action
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Now junk bonds have a very low average to range
Now junk bonds have a very low average to range and so I personally would never trade a bond ETF
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Yes, they have buy and sell signals yesterday Trend, but,
Yes, they have buy and sell signals yesterday Trend, but, you know, the chance of making a reasonable amount of capital gains on trading of a bond ETF, is rather low
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Now, I trade bonds but I trade Bonds in the
Now, I trade bonds but I trade Bonds in the Futures Market because the leverage you know, the margin leverage on a bond is much higher than it is on an ETF
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So there is a lot more opportunity to make capital
So there is a lot more opportunity to make capital gains and capital losses in the bond, Futures Market, but not the bond ETF market
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Next up with Seth, take a look at Commodities, starting
Next up with Seth, take a look at Commodities, starting with the price of gold made a new low, for this movie yesterday coming down with a 1625 level
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If that breaks, of course in 1562 50s, our next
If that breaks, of course in 1562 50s, our next Target by the GLD looking pretty similar to the Futures Contract, 150 is our next Target, but the low a couple of weeks ago is 15103 so
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that should be the low that you're looking for right
that should be the low that you're looking for right now, gold miners the US on a cell signal, gold miners on the TSX also on a cell signal
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They traded up into the channel, then we've got the
They traded up into the channel, then we've got the natural gas, Futures, Contract, and the u n g
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Other hand, we still have energy socks on the TSX
Other hand, we still have energy socks on the TSX on a by signal and energy stocks on the NYSE also want to buy signal heading up to try to retest the highs from back in August
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Starting with the Vicks are the vix is still on
Starting with the Vicks are the vix is still on a cell signal but didn't do anything for the market yesterday, trading higher closing higher
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If we move from the right side Church of the
If we move from the right side Church of the midterm chart, you can see when conservative investors are going to feel more comfortable getting back into the market and that's when the vix is going to
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be below 26 and you can see on the spider
be below 26 and you can see on the spider ETF chart, even though we're on a bicycle on the right side chart, we've got a bit of work to do before we get above the midterm
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Of course, I still want to sell signal right now
Of course, I still want to sell signal right now and then there's the ishares for the TSX, 60
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So the first sign that the more conservative money is
So the first sign that the more conservative money is getting back into the market
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Is when we start closing above the upper tether line,
Is when we start closing above the upper tether line, On the the midterm charts and that may take a little bit of work so I'm not going to get overly excited on these
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Right now the market has a bit more work to
Right now the market has a bit more work to do and certainly, you know, everybody is anticipating a low here in October and then rally into the year, and of course, you can anticipate those things,
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And, of course, the bond market hitting new lows is
And, of course, the bond market hitting new lows is probably not supportive for the stock market
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00:00:00Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Thursday morning.
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00:00:02Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com
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00:00:04with today's look at North American stock market trends.
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00:00:08In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are fairly quiet.
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00:00:11Dow and S&P 500 futures are higher, while Nasdaq futures are slightly lower.
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00:00:16Commodities are higher across the board on Thursday morning.
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00:00:20Let's start off looking at the price of copper.
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00:00:22And copper is often referred to as dr copper.
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00:00:27It's considered a global economic
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00:00:30barometer, mostly to do with construction activity around the world.
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00:00:34On a shortterm basis, this charts looking pretty bearish.
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00:00:37We had a high here in August, a lower high in September, and then a lower high here.
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00:00:43We had a low there and then a lower low.
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00:00:46So now we're looking to see what happens next.
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00:00:49Do we hold support here at the recent lower?
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00:00:52Do we break it?
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00:00:53And I would imagine that we're probably going to break it now.
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00:00:56If we look at a longer term monthly chart
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00:00:58of copper, you can see that we've seen some weakness in 2022.
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00:01:04Most of that has to do with the construction weakness in China.
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00:01:08The Chinese market made a new low yesterday.
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00:01:10It is going to make another new low today as the market traded down overnight.
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00:01:15So when the Chinese ETFs open up
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00:01:17in New York at 9:30, they're all going to trade lower on Thursday morning.
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00:01:22Now, the other economic barometer that I like to watch closely is the socks index.
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00:01:27The chip sector chips are basically
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00:01:29included in everything that's manufactured today from, of course,
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00:01:33we know cell phones and computers, but the whole world of the automobile
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00:01:38industry is totally controlled by the chip sector.
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00:01:41And chips are still on a cell signal right now inside day yesterday.
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00:01:45If we look at a monthly chart of the socks
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00:01:48index, you can see the weakness that we've had in 2022.
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00:01:50And of course, we made a new low last week.
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00:01:53So the first time something new is happening, of course,
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00:01:55is going to be a monthly close above the previous month's high.
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00:01:59And not expecting that to happen in October.
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00:02:02Looking at a daily chart of the pros and the public, they're still in their own
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00:02:06corners, and it doesn't look like the pros want to take control right away.
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00:02:10Now, the chip stocks that I watch
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00:02:12the most, and I really try to focus on a handful of stocks each day.
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00:02:15I don't go wandering looking in the dark
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00:02:18corners of the stock market for something to do.
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00:02:20I trade the stocks that I follow and that's it.
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00:02:24And AMD is still on a sell signal here.
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00:02:27Looks like it's building an area of support.
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00:02:30It's been trading sideways for the past couple of weeks.
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00:02:33It did make a new low last week, but then came back.
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00:02:37And so yesterday it was an inside day.
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00:02:39A close above 61 45 would give us a buy signal on Thursday.
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00:02:43Now, I talked about Nvidia last week.
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00:02:46It looked like the market was more
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00:02:47interested in Nvidia than AMD, and that is still true.
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00:02:51We traded through the upper channel line on Tuesday and inside day on Wednesday
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00:02:55at close above 123.17 would give us a buy signal on Thursday for Nvidia.
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00:03:02Now, intel is a widely watched stock because it's part of the Dow 30.
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00:03:08I'm going to show you why I don't trade intel or follow it,
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00:03:11but right now it's been trading in the channel for the past five days
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00:03:15and looking for a close on Thursday above 26.62.
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00:03:19Now, if you look at the average true range of intel, it's currently just a little
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00:03:23over 4%, which is quite big for the average stock on the stock market.
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00:03:30But we're in the chip sector and what you
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00:03:33should be looking for in the chip sector is something more like Nvidia over 6% or
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00:03:38AMD, which is up just under six and a half percent.
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00:03:42So if you're trying to trade for capital
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00:03:44gains, you want a stock that has a fairly normal average true range for the sector
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00:03:50and not go after the stock with the lowest average true range in the sector.
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00:03:55And intel is often that particular stock.
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00:03:58So if you want more volatility, if you want more opportunity for capital
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00:04:02gains, you stick with the ones with a higher average true range.
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00:04:06And of course, if you're a risk averse, you don't go after stocks like this
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00:04:11because 6.46% is actually pretty high for the average North American stock.
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00:04:17Now, the queues had an inside day yesterday, so we're still on a sell signal
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00:04:21here that would change on Thursday with a close above 270 319.
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00:04:25Tesla's in the news came out with earnings.
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00:04:28It's down in the pre market this morning,
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00:04:30still above last week's lows, so they haven't been broken yet.
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00:04:34So that's a good sign.
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00:04:36There may be a chance Tesla could start to put in a bottom here.
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00:04:40Things could turn around on Thursday,
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00:04:41but in the premarket this morning, they are trading lower.
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00:04:44Now, there's a lot of talk regarding Tesla.
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00:04:47Of course, there always is.
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00:04:49Elon Musk is thinking about doing share buybacks, and then the market is looking
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00:04:52at the fact that Elon Musk is probably going to have to sell more of his Tesla
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00:04:56shares to afford to buy Twitter, which of course he has an obligation to do.
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00:05:02Now, IBM's in the news this morning, it's on a buy signal right now.
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00:05:06It's trading higher in the pre market,
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00:05:07right up at the high from a couple of weeks ago.
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00:05:10So 125 is our mathematical target,
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00:05:13but we did poke our head above that back in October.
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00:05:17Now, I haven't traded IBM in probably 2025
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00:05:20years because it's got a very low average true range at 2.63%. It's not a technology
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00:05:27stock and that's probably why I stopped trading it.
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00:05:30It's a consulting company.
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00:05:32It's not a technology stock anymore,
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00:05:34but it is widely followed because it's part of the Dow 30.
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00:05:37So it's got an average true range, but that's not what I'm looking for.
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00:05:43I'm a more aggressive investor than probably the average investor out there.
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00:05:48Now, looking at the bond market,
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00:05:50bonds made new lows yesterday and bond yields made new highs.
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00:05:54So the market has been holding up fairly
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00:05:56well as the yields continue to move higher.
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00:06:00So I would have expected the stock market to sell off.
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00:06:03More on the news of these new higher yields, there's the TLT making a new low.
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00:06:08There's the XBB in Toronto making a new low.
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00:06:11We've got emerging market bonds holding up fairly well.
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00:06:14And then the junk bonds are still on a buy signal here from Tuesday's trading action.
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00:06:19Now, junk bonds have a very low average true range.
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00:06:23And so I personally would never trade a bond ETF.
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00:06:26Yes, they have buy and sell signals, yes, they trend, but the chance of making
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00:06:32reasonable amount of capital gains on trading a bond ETF is rather low.
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00:06:37Now, I trade bonds, but I trade bonds in the futures market
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00:06:40because the margin leverage on a bond is much higher than it is on an ETF.
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00:06:47So there is a lot more opportunity to make capital gains and capital losses
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00:06:52in the bond futures market, but not the bond ETF market.
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00:06:57And of course, some people have a reason
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00:06:59to be in the bond ETF market, but it is not me.
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00:07:05Next up, let's take a look at commodities, starting with the price of gold.
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00:07:09Made a new low for this move yesterday, coming down to the 162.50 level.
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00:07:14That's where we expect to find support.
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00:07:16If that breaks, of course, then 1562 50 is our next target.
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00:07:21The GLD looking pretty similar to the futures contract.
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00:07:24150 is our next target,
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00:07:25but the low a couple of weeks ago is 151.03.
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00:07:29So that should be the low that you're looking for right now.
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00:07:34Gold miners in the US on a sell signal.
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00:07:36Gold miners on the TSX also on a sell signal.
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00:07:40Now we've got crude oil on a sell signal right now.
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00:07:42Had an inside day yesterday.
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00:07:45The USO ETF did not have an inside day.
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00:07:48Traded up into the channel.
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00:07:50Then we've got the natural gas futures
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00:07:52contract and the Ung both making new lows on Thursday.
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00:07:56So those charts don't look very bullish.
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00:07:59But on the other hand, we still have energy stocks on the TSX
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00:08:03on a buy signal and energy stocks on the NYSE also on a buy signal.
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00:08:08Heading up to try to retest the highs from back in August.
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00:08:13Let's finish off this morning's
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00:08:14presentation looking at the major indices starting with the VIX.
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00:08:18The VIX is still on a sell signal,
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00:08:19but didn't do anything for the market yesterday.
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00:08:22Trading higher, closing higher.
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00:08:24If we move from the right side chart
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00:08:26to the midterm chart, you can see when conservative investors
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00:08:29are going to feel more comfortable getting back into the market.
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00:08:32And that's when the VIX is going to be below 26.
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00:08:35And you can see on the spider ETF chart,
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00:08:38even though we're on a bicycle on the right side chart,
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00:08:40we've got a bit of work to do before we get above the midterm tether line.
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00:08:45That's also true for the Q's.
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00:08:47The Q's, of course, are still on a cell signal right now.
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00:08:50And then there's the I shares for the TSX 60.
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00:08:52So the first sign that more conservative money is getting back into the market is
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00:08:56when we start closing above the upper tether line on the midterm charts.
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00:09:01And that may take a little bit of work, so I'm not going to get overly excited
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00:09:05on these new daily short term right side buy signals.
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00:09:10Right now, the market has a bit more work to do, and certainly everybody's
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00:09:15anticipating a low here in October and then a rally into the year end.
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00:09:20Of course, you can anticipate those
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00:09:21things, but we need to see more evidence that that's actually happening.
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00:09:25And of course, the bond market hitting new lows is probably not supportive
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00:09:29for the stock market to have a major turnaround at this time.
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00:09:33Okay, that's all for Thursday morning, folks.
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00:09:35Enjoy the rest of your day.
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00:09:37I won't be back on Friday.
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00:09:38Next time you'll hear my voice is on Sunday.