Sitting On The Edge 10242023

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com.

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In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are above fair value.

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DOW futures currently up 100 points.

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We've got commodities mixed with crude oil slightly higher, while gold is down

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another $10 in the premarket on Tuesday morning.

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Well, this is the average investor right

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now just sitting on the edge, wondering if they should be panic sellers.

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We are down at support at the moment and

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we're looking to see if we can hold that support.

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Now, the most significant thing to happen

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on Monday was probably Bill Ackman saying that he covered his short positions in US

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bonds, and that put a bit into bonds yesterday as it may potentially mark the

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bottom for bonds and the top for bond yields.

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Now, bond yields in the premarket this morning are trading higher.

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We're not seeing fall through to the downside on Tuesday morning.

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That, of course, could change over time.

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Looking at the VIX, we made a new high for

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the VIX before pulling back and actually closing lower on the day by 6.17 %.

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We are still closing above the upper channel line.

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On Tuesday, we're looking for a close below $17.71. Of

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course, a sell signal in the VIX is positive for the stock market as it tells

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us that options traders are starting to get bullish on the overall stock market.

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Now, the Dow traded down yesterday and closed near the lower of the day.

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That had a lot to do with Intel and Chevron.

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The DOW itself is not the most followed ETF.

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It is not the most followed product on Wall Street.

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The media loves the DOW.

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The public knows what the DOW is.

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Of course, it's the oldest index in North America, but the stock market itself, the

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institutions, the pros, they do not follow the DOW or care about it.

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I can show you that in several ways.

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The first way to see it is just to look at the volumes and the DOW diamonds, which

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we're showing here, was the 97th most actively traded ETF in the US on Monday.

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If you include the 2X and 3X ETFs, it was

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the 129th most actively traded ETF in the United States.

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What does the market watch?

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Well, they watched the S&P 500, which actually made a new low on Monday.

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We recently put in a lower high.

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Now we're putting in a lower low.

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We didn't close below the previous low, but we closed at the previous low.

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When you look at the most actively traded ETFs in the US, and not only the volume,

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but the dollar, the amount that it's actually trading at.

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So if you multiply the volume times the

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closing price, here is where all the money is.

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It's in the SPY, it's in the Triple Qs, it's in the IWM, and it's in the TLT.

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Those are the four biggest ETFs

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trading in the United States right now, even when you include the 2X and 3X ETFs.

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Now, if we start breaking down below yesterday's low and breaking away from the

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421.88 level, and you can see we're still attached to that.

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If we start breaking down, it wouldn't be

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surprising if we move down to the 406.25 level and even down to 400 dollars.

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That has not started yet. Where there's hope?

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Well, there's hope in the Nasdaq, which

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did not break down below the September low.

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So that is still in place.

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We did make a lower low yesterday, but we did not break down below the 351.56 level.

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So the market is sitting right on the edge

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there, hoping that we can hold yesterday's low on Tuesday.

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Now, semiconductors did make a new low

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yesterday, and a lot of symbols made new 52-week lows on Monday.

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We'll take a look at that in a minute.

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The at TSX continued to move lower on

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Monday, but did not retest the recent low just yet.

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We'll have to hope that that does not happen.

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Now, talking about 52 week lows, we brought this up last week, and we were

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looking at 26 new highs on the NYSE followed by 482 new lows.

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That has expanded and we made a new high for the number of 52 week lows on Monday.

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That is also true in Canada, where yesterday in the Canadian market, we had

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8 new 52 week highs followed by 220 new 52 week lows.

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Now, the US dollar index came back down to the recent low.

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The pros are starting to give up control on the US dollar index.

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That move in rates yesterday and bond

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prices affected the US dollar and money may be coming out of the US dollar.

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That could be bullish for the stock market going forward.

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Now, when we look at this particular

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chart, you'll notice that the public line is fairly flat.

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The reason for that is there's not a lot

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of the public moving the US dollar index around.

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It's mostly banks, central banks, corporations, institutions.

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Those are the ones that are moving the US dollar index around.

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It has very little to do with the public.

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So if you're looking at different charts and the public line is basically flat,

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that is telling you that the public does not really have much sway in that

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particular market, and certainly for the US dollar index, that is true.

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Now looking at bond yields, we saw the TLT move up yesterday over 1%.

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That was in the news yesterday because

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the volume was almost double the average daily volume.

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So a lot of people listening to what Bill Ackman said and getting back in there

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buying bonds, the pros are nowhere near taking control.

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And last time we got a little buy signal.

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Again, the pros were nowhere near control.

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So it's going to take a while for the bond

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market to sort itself out if it wants to start moving higher from here.

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And looking at the 10-year bond, it moved

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up into the channel yesterday, not enough, of course, to give us a buy signal, and

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the yield came down to the upper channel line.

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Again, not enough to give us a sell signal.

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In the premarket this morning, it's actually moving up.

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We're not seeing a lot of fall through to the downside on Tuesday morning.

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Looking at commodities and we'll look at

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the major commodity ETFs trading in the US.

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The USO pulled back into the channel yesterday.

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For crude oil to give us a sell signal on Tuesday, we're looking for a close below

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$77.72. In the premarket, we are trading higher, so we're not expecting a sell

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signal on Tuesday from the information we have today.

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Gasoline pulled back to the upper channel line on Monday.

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You can see the big sell off after the summer driving season ended

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and we're seeing if we can hold a buy signal for any longer than one week.

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A close below $64.24 would give us a sell signal on Tuesday.

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Not expecting that to happen.

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Again, no joy for natural gas, still on a

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cell signal here trying to hold the 6.80 level on the UNG.

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Then moving over to metals, the GLD moved

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up to resistance at 184.38 and has started to pull back.

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You can see that's where we capped off back in July.

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Looking at palladium, no joy there.

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We need to close above 105.87 on Tuesday.

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Platinum is still on a buy signal, not going anywhere at the moment.

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And Silver, Silver ran up to the September high and started to pull back.

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We're trying to get up to 21.88, which

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would be up at the bottom of that open gap from August, but so far, no joy.

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So that is a very bearish sign for the

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metals market to see silver pull back and not able to make a higher high.

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Looking at big cap tech stocks, and this is where a lot of the activity was on

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Monday, we saw NVIDIA up over 3%, nearly 4% on the day.

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And the reason for that was NVIDIA

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announced that they were going to start making computer CPUs.

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And of course, whose market is that?

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Well, it's Intels and it's AMDs.

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And both of those stocks pulled back

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pulling the SOX index and semiconductor ETFs lower on Monday.

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We haven't talked about the ARK products recently and the ARK Innovation ETF made a

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new low yesterday, getting right down to the bottom of our

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daily projected trading range, which is 34.38. That's the bottom of the range.

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Of course, it has traded below that before.

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We'll have to see if we can get some money flow back into the AR

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K Innovations ETF before we hit the bottom of the projected trading range.

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Now, just like the Nasdaq-100, the TSX

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Infotech Index is also holding recent support.

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Unfortunately, BlackBerry made a new low yesterday.

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Remember, BlackBerry gapped lower and then moved back up to fill that gap.

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I really thought that investors would hate

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that move and that's exactly what happened.

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Blackberry has been punished ever since.

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Looking at the light speed, it is holding the recent low as well.

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And so is Shopify.

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Shopify still holding the 68.75 level.

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If that breaks down, 62.50 would be our next target to the downside.

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Of course, we have an open gap back there to the left.

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So if you're a Shopify trader, Shopify investor, you know where that gap is, you

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know what the bottom is, you know what the top is.

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And we've been trading in the gap but have not got down to the bottom so far.

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Then last up, Tesla.

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Tesla made a new low for this move

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yesterday before we're covering and closing up nine cents on the day.

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So that's something for Tesla investors to be happy about.

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But unfortunately, at the same time, we

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made a lower low on Monday, and of course, that is bearish.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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We are getting closer to month end, which may help stabilize the market.

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We're still a ways away from that, but it is coming up.

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So just keep that in the back of your mind

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that the month end is coming up, and that usually has a bullish bias for the market.

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Enjoy the rest of your day.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

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