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00:00:00Hello, everyone, and welcome to this
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00:00:02weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.
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00:00:05My name, of course, is Stephen Whiteside from theuptrend.com.
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00:00:08I'll try to keep this as brief as possible.
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00:00:10There's a lot that you could say, but it's really not going to change anything.
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00:00:15We really need to give the market time to figure out what it wants to do next.
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00:00:20Now, we are coming into month end and
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00:00:22month end usually has a bullish bias to it.
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00:00:25We're also coming into quarter end and we may see some quarter end window dressing
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00:00:29this week that could help push up the stock market indices.
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00:00:33Now, when we look at the seasonality charts back in February, we were expecting
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00:00:37the VIX to spike in the month of March, and that certainly happened.
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00:00:43Historically, after that spike, we move down until at least the end of April.
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00:00:47That's usually bullish for the stock market.
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00:00:50We were expecting the S&P 500 and the TSX to both sell off in the month of March.
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00:00:55Now, historically, we're looking for a
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00:00:57move up to at least the end of April, if not into early May.
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00:01:02Now, that may not happen this year because
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00:01:04there's a lot more going on than usually happens around this time.
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00:01:08This time of year, we're looking at corporate profits and corporate outlooks,
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00:01:12but there's a lot more on the table this year with the Fed trying to fight
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00:01:16inflation and the Fed's also trying to avoid a banking crisis.
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00:01:20Now, the market's been focused on the problem with US regional banks over the
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00:01:24past couple of weeks, but the global market has been focused on
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00:01:28Credit Suisse, which has been devolving over the past couple of years.
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00:01:32And if you look at who's in control, you can see on the weekly Who's in control
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00:01:36chart that the pros really haven't had any interest in this stock in quite a while.
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00:01:41And so the company was saved this week.
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00:01:45The stock certainly wasn't.
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00:01:47The stock was down another 57 % on the week.
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00:01:50So that is a banking crisis that just
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00:01:53might move from one bank to another with UBS picking up Credit Suisse.
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00:02:00Now, of course, Credit Suisse has been a problem for a
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00:02:04while, but the market didn't care about it until the regional banking crisis.
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00:02:09And so now we're living with several banking crisis going on at the same time.
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00:02:14Now, Deutsche Bank was down on the week over 5 %.
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00:02:18It's been down the last three weeks in a row.
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00:02:21Now people are concerned about that bank.
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00:02:24The US regional banks have somewhat stabilized.
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00:02:28There's no guarantee that we're not going to head lower.
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00:02:32But Fifth Third, for example, actually
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00:02:34closed slightly higher on the week inside week for that stock.
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00:02:38It doesn't mean the crisis is over.
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00:02:39It just means it's stopped for the present time.
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00:02:42Now, when I look at Citigroup, you can see it's coming down again to the $40 level,
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00:02:47which has acted as major support over the last couple of years.
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00:02:51If that breaks, that's going to be a very
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00:02:53ugly sign that we're heading back down to the COVID lows.
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00:02:57Then we're looking at CIBC, which has some US exposure.
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00:03:01It's coming down to the 53.flypaper58 level.
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00:03:05It's still a couple of dollars away, but could hit it this week.
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00:03:09And that would be a big breaking point for that stock if it was to take out that low.
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00:03:13The Royal Bank is holding up fairly well still in the Fly Paper channel.
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00:03:17The TD Bank, which has the largest US
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00:03:20exposure, is starting to break down below those recent lows from back in 2022.
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00:03:26And then we've got Bank of America, which has broken down below those lows and it
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00:03:32traded down to just above the open gap from back in 2020.
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00:03:37The top of that gap is at 26.30. The low
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00:03:40this week was 26.32. So we got two cents away from the top of the open gap.
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00:03:46That's not filling the gap.
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00:03:47We haven't even touched the gap yet.
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00:03:49But you can see that there are some orders
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00:03:51in just above that open gap that people are trying to pick the bottom here.
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00:03:56And there's certainly no evidence that we have a bottom yet.
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00:03:59Bank of America still closed down 2.44 % on the week.
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00:04:03Now, we've had some upward momentum here,
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00:04:06and it's mostly in the technology sector being led higher by the semiconductors.
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00:04:11So the gains that we've seen lately are incredibly narrow.
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00:04:15There's not a lot going on in the upside.
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00:04:17We've also had gold shoot up over the past couple of weeks, and that has also taken
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00:04:22gold stocks to the top of the winners list.
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00:04:25So we've got gold, we've got semiconductors.
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00:04:27What's not working?
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00:04:28Anything financial dividends, preferred shares, anything out there is all heading
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00:04:34in the other direction, whether it's US banks or regional banks.
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00:04:38Now, if the global economy is going to slow down, there's going to be less need
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00:04:42for crude oil, and that is certainly reflected in the current price of crude
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00:04:46oil, which made a new low this week before recovering and closing up 2.75 %.
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00:04:51Still trading and closing below the lower channel line.
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00:04:54Did not close above the previous week's
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00:04:55high, so no sign of anything new happening in crude oil.
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00:05:00Moving on to the VIX, and the weekly VIX
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00:05:02is still on a buy signal, which is negative for stocks.
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00:05:05That would change this coming Friday below 1975.
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00:05:10Now, looking at it weekly chart of the
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00:05:12price targets for the VIX, one thing that's bullish here is we made a high back
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00:05:18here, and now we've made a series of lower highs.
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00:05:21So this is certainly could be the start of
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00:05:24something if the VIX wants to move lower from here.
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00:05:27On the daily charts, we did have that day
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00:05:30where the VIX came down, gave a sell signal.
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00:05:32We talked about waiving off those signals
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00:05:35because we thought that anything that was coming up ahead of the
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00:05:39Fed meeting or during the Fed meeting was probably going to reverse fairly quickly.
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00:05:43And that's exactly what happened.
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00:05:45Now, on Friday, we closed at 2170, and you
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00:05:49can see that 21 59 is the lower channel line there.
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00:05:53So if we're going to see more negativity, we need to close above 2564.
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00:05:57If we're going to see some buying going
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00:06:00into month end, we need the VIX below 21 59.
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00:06:04Let's finish off this weekend's
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00:06:05presentation and we'll look at the daily index ETF charts that we follow.
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00:06:10Starting with the iS shares for the TSX
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00:06:1260, we closed right at the lower channel line on Friday.
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00:06:15Looking for a close on Monday above 29.99 to give us a new buy signal.
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00:06:20And of course, if that doesn't happen,
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00:06:21that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.
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00:06:25Similar situation for the DOW Diamonds.
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00:06:27We're looking for a close above 324.85. We did get a buy signal on Tuesday.
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00:06:33We waived that off going into the Fed
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00:06:34meeting and still waiting for reconfirmation.
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00:06:37The next close above the upper channel line would do that.
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00:06:41And then looking at the SPY, we're still on a sell signal here.
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00:06:45Again, we had the buy signal on Tuesday, we waived that off,
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00:06:49and now we're looking for a close on Monday above 397.06. Now, what is working?
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00:06:54Well, the Nasdaq was on a buy signal coming into this week.
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00:06:58I had an inside day on Friday looking for a close on Monday below $300.57. If that
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00:07:04doesn't happen, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily.
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00:07:08Then looking at semiconductors using the
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00:07:11XSD ETF, we were down 2 % on Friday, still on a buy signal.
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00:07:15Things would change for the semiconductors on Monday with a close below 197.40.
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00:07:21Okay, folks, that's all for this weekend's presentation.
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00:07:24Stock index futures have started trading on Sunday night.
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00:07:27So far, they're above fair value.
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00:07:29Asian markets haven't opened yet.
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00:07:30So far, we know that there hasn't been any new bombshells to go off over the weekend.
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00:07:35We may see the start of a major banking crisis.
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00:07:39We've had some little blips so far.
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00:07:42Generally, what happens is everybody wants
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00:07:45to share good news, but nobody wants to share bad news.
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00:07:49When there is bad news out there, other people with bad news like to share
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00:07:54it at the same time so they get some cover.
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00:07:57They're not the only ones that screwed up.
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00:08:00That could be what happens here.
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00:08:02We'll just have to wait and see.
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00:08:04I'm really not
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00:08:06interested in taking on any new positions for the next couple of days.
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00:08:09We'll just wait and see what happens at
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00:08:11month end and see which way the market wants to take us next.
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00:08:15Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
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00:08:17Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.