Monday Market Outlook 03042024

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.

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com In the pre-market this morning, stock

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index futures and commodities are trading below fair value.

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So so far, it looks like we're going to

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see a little selling at the open on Monday morning.

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Let's start off looking at a weekly chart

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of the VIX, and the VIX is still on a sell signal.

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That is supportive for higher stock prices on a long-term basis.

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If we look at a daily chart of the VIX, again, we're still on a sell signal here.

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And as long as we close below 14.

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42 on Monday, we will remain short term bullish on the market.

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Now, on Friday, I was going to do a review of February, but unfortunately, I wasn't

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feeling very well last week and couldn't do it.

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So just looking at the charts from

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February, you can see the S&P 500 was up over 5 %.

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Looking at the seasonality chart, typically we peak in the middle of

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February and then sell off into the middle of March.

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We may or may not do that, but that's what the seasonality chart tells us to expect.

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Then looking at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq was up again over 5 %, making a new high here.

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Again, we're looking for a peak in the

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middle of February and then selling into March.

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So far, that certainly has not started and may not start.

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Seasonality charts are no guarantee.

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It's just an average of what happens at this time of the year.

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Now, looking at the TSX, we are up 1.

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63% on the month.

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And looking at the seasonality chart, we

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usually get buying into the end of RRSP season, which ended last week,

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and now we expect the market to sell off into the middle of March.

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Again, that has not started.

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Then looking at a seasonality chart of the

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VIX, you can see the VIX Rockets sharply higher during the month of March.

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Again, there's no guarantee that this is going to happen.

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If we look at the chart over the last

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year, you can see that we did spike at this time last year.

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And then if we go back two years, Just the

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whole first quarter, we saw the VIX being highly elevated,

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getting up over 38 before coming back down into the month of April.

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Now, stocks to watch, one that I'm watching closely right now is

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New York Community Bank Corp, which gapped lower on Friday.

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It's not something I'm going to trade or

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ever look at investing, but the market is certainly concerned about it.

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It's something to keep in the back of your mind that this could fall apart and

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certainly cause a major pullback in the market.

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Now, at one point last year, we were

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talking about stocks making lower highs and lower lows, and Apple is starting to

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do that now, and that is a bit of a concern.

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You can see on a weekly chart of Apple, we made a new low for this move last week.

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Looking at a daily chart, we're breaking down below the 200-day moving average.

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We haven't broken away from it yet, but we are trading below it.

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When We are trading down in the pre-market this morning.

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So that is a concern for me.

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Apple is a stock I watch closely.

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It's the most widely held stock in the world.

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And we are looking at the 181.

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25 level, and You can see we're starting

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to break away from that heading towards the 175 level.

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If things were to turn around on Monday, a close above $183.

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86 would give us a new buy signal for Apple.

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So far, we're not expecting that to happen.

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And if it doesn't happen on Monday, of

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course, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.

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Now, NVIDIA is still the stock to watch.

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It made a new closing high on Friday.

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It's important to remember that we've been through this before.

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This is the AI bubble.

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We did have a.

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Com bubble, and NVIDIA looked like this going into the pop of the bubble, and then

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after it burst, it was down over 90% from the high.

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Just keep that in the back of your mind that these bubbles usually pop,

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and when they pop, it's not usually very pretty on the way back down.

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Certainly no sign of that starting on Monday morning.

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Now, I always tell you to always be upgrading.

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That's the only way you can keep up with the market.

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That's why the major stock market indices continue to move higher over time.

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You've probably heard the term buy and hold.

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While buying and hold individual stocks is incredibly risky.

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It's very hard to tell which stock is going to be successful?

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And of course, we can always look back

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in time and see what would have been the right move.

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But what you don't see when you look back in time is all the stocks that are gone.

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And I always tell the story about IBM back in the '50s.

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Yes, it would have been a great investment to buy IBM in 1954.

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But would you have done that?

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I mean, there were other computer companies at that time competing with IBM.

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On average, you probably didn't pick IBM.

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You would have picked something else which isn't around anymore.

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You need to always be upgrading the stocks

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in your portfolio to make sure that they are leading.

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And so the S&P 500 has decided to kick a couple of stocks out.

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They're kicking out Whirlpool and Zion's Bank.

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Those are coming out of the S&P 500.

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And what's going in?

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Well, Deckers is going in, and Super Micro Computer is also going in.

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Now, Super Micro is part of the AI bubble,

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and it has gone from $100 to $1,000 in less than a year.

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Now, looking at earnings this week, Costco

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is the one that I'm watching closely, and it hit our next price target last week of

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750, which is both a daily and a weekly price target.

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The pros have been in control since early November.

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We're coming in on Monday on a buy signal.

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Things would change on Monday if Costco were to close below $732.

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22.

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Now, we're almost done here.

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Looking at the commodities, we had the energy sector up last week.

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Energy stocks in the US were up 1. 37%.

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In Canada, they were up over 5%.

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That's a lot to do with one stock.

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Then gold miners were up on the week.

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No change on a weekly basis, but we do have new daily buy signals.

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We ran into this situation a month ago.

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The signal only lasted a day.

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Hopefully, it will last much longer than that this time.

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Let's finish off just noting that a sell

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signal is not necessarily a sell signal for everyone.

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In this presentation on a daily basis,

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we're looking at the Daily Right Side Chart, which is a short term trading tool,

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and it's really designed for swing traders.

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On Monday, we're looking for a close below $432.

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87.

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Now, if you're not a swing trader, you're

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going to need more evidence that the market is changing

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direction, and on Monday, We're looking for a close below $423.

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If you're a long-term investor and you're

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not checking the charts daily, you're going to need a close below $412.

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26 this coming Friday.

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If you're a long term investor and really don't want to trade the market at all,

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then you're going to be waiting for a close below $400 before you jump ship.

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If we were to get down below $400, that

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would certainly be the sign that we are entering a bear market.

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And none of those have happened yet, but

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the first one we're going to react to, of course, is the right side chart.

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And then over time, we're going to need these other ones to start to fall before

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we get overly concerned about the health of the market.

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And none of that has happened so far.

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When it does happen, when we get our

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initial sell signal in the Nasdaq or the other major indices, that's going

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to be a short term sell signal, and it's not going to be for everyone.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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We are for a little selling at the open on Monday morning.

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Not enough to do any major damage from what's happening in the pre-market this

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morning, but we'll just have to wait and see.

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Have a great day, folks.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

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