Stock Market Timing Television - 20230111

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Good morning everyone and welcome to Wednesday Morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from the
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uptrend.com in the Premarket this morning things are fairly quiet.
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Stock index futures and commodities are higher.
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Dow futures currently up 50 points.
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Now Wednesday should be a fairly quiet day.
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The market is waiting for CPI numbers to come out on Thursday morning and I think
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volatility will start to expand after those numbers come out.
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Here's an interesting chart I saw this morning.
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Small business optimism, it dropped in December.
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What's interesting about that is the fact
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that we're down at levels that we haven't seen since back at the Pandemic lows.
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And you can see the overall trend has been down for the last couple of years.
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So boots on the ground, bottom up
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analysis, it's not looking good out there for 2023.
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Now if you've checked the news this morning, you've probably heard that the US
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is having trouble with its air traffic control system this morning.
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And that part of the market has been doing fairly well over the past few days.
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Looking at the Jets ETF, and then looking
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at Travel Technology and then looking at the airlines there's.
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American Airlines having a new closing high for this move on Tuesday and even
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Southwest has been able to get back on a buy signal over the past couple of days.
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So air traffic control system down, that
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might not be good for these stocks on Wednesday.
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Then looking at the SPY S&P 500 on Friday,
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the market had a nice big pop and ended the day with a buy signal.
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We were looking for fall through to the upside on Monday we got that intraday but
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then going into the close we gave it all up and actually closed lower on the day.
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So the high for that day was 393. 70.
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So you need to put a pin in that number.
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Yesterday we did close higher on the day but did not take out that previous high.
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So we're looking to see if we can do that on Wednesday.
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That would certainly be helpful for the Bullish case.
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If we could take out Monday's high, that bearish reversal signal is still in play.
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It we need to close above Monday's high to take out that bearish reversal signal.
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Otherwise that is the high for this particular move.
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Now we're stuck at our price target of 390.
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63. So if you had an order in to sell that has
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been filled over the past couple of days, if we can break out above Monday's high
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then 400 is a nice target to the upside as a big psychological round number.
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But you can see that back in November and
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December we peaked just above the 406.25 target.
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Looking at the Canadian market we had similar situation.
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Nice big update on Friday, left with a buy
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signal, looking for fall through to the upside on Monday.
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Again, we had it intraday and then gave it all up going into the close.
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So we're looking to see if we can take out 30.
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56 as our next target to the upside.
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You can see that 30.
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47 is holding us in check right now.
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If we can take that out, then 30.
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86 would be our next target to the upside for the ishares for the TSX 60.
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Now the VIX is back on a sell signal as of Friday's close.
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That would change on Wednesday with a close above 22.
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80. Now the problem with the VIX and the
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problem the VIX has had for the past couple of months is in early November we
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started to trade in to a range below 25 and above 18.75. We're really not going to
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know which way the market wants to go next long term until we break out of this
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range and it doesn't look like we're going to do that on Wednesday.
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Now a couple of stocks I watched very closely.
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I'm still short Apple.
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That has not changed.
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That would change on Wednesday and caused me to take action on Thursday morning.
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If we get a close above 131.
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33.
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For Tesla, we're still looking for a close above 122.
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70 on Wednesday to give us a buy signal.
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And we had an inside day yesterday for
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Microsoft, looking for a close on Wednesday above 235.
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86.
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So far that open gap is holding us in check.
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Let's finish off this morning's
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presentation with a quick look at commodities.
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Well, if small business optimism is going down, copper is going up.
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And if that is a global economic
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barometer, it has been making higher highs and higher lows recently and that is
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bullish for copper and a lot of the mining stocks.
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Gold made a new closing high yesterday.
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It's still stuck at 1875.
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If we can take out Monday's high, then 1906.25 is our next target to the upside.
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Going in the other direction unfortunately is silver.
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Not very quickly, but we've been down the last couple of days.
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The pros are starting to give up control of silver.
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That could put a damper on Gold's movement to the upside.
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We'll just have to wait and see.
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Now when you look at this chart, you can see how flat the public line is.
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The public doesn't have a lot of influence over the silver futures contract.
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It does certainly have an influence on the silver ETFs.
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And you can see the public is a lot more
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active in the ETF market than they are in the futures market.
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And so that's why you get the big difference between that line representing
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the public and that line representing the public.
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And as you can see, the public is starting to take control of the price of silver
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right now as the pros start to exit the market.
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Looking at crude oil.
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We had an inside day yesterday.
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Things would change on Wednesday with a
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close above 75 72 and we had a new closing low for natural gas on Tuesday.
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Looking to see if that turns around.
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It is up slightly in the pre market on Wednesday morning.
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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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I'm off to donate blood this morning.
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I hope you've got an appointment booked soon.
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There is quite a shortage of blood at the moment.
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Have a great day.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.
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Thank you.

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