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00:00:00Hello, everyone. It's Stephen Whiteside here from
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00:00:03theuptrend.com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing, Television.
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00:00:08Well, this week was all about getting what you expect.
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00:00:11We were expecting a bullish bias going
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00:00:13into month end and quarter end, and that's exactly what we got.
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00:00:18We were also looking at the seasonal
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00:00:19charts and the market pretty well played through the seasonal tendencies.
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00:00:24We were expecting a peak in the VIX in the middle of the month and then for the VIX
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00:00:28to decline into month end, and that's exactly what happened.
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00:00:32We were expecting the S&P 500 to make a bottom in the middle of the month and then
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00:00:37run up into month end, and that's what happened.
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00:00:40And we were expecting the TSX to do
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00:00:42something similar, and that's what happened, sometimes you get what you
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00:00:46expect, but unfortunately, there's no guarantee that that's going to
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00:00:50happen the next time we're looking at those seasonal charts.
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00:00:54Now, going into April, it looks like we've got four aces.
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00:00:57The seasonal tendency is to the upside in the month of April, but of course, we've
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00:01:03got a lot of stuff going on and the market could easily go either way.
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00:01:07The Fed is still trying to fight inflation.
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00:01:09It's also trying to keep banks from collapsing.
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00:01:13Now, with the Fed having to fight two
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00:01:15fires at once, I think the stock market believes it has
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00:01:18leverage over the Fed in which it can cause the Fed to pivot.
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00:01:22And a pivot for the Fed means that they
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00:01:24stop doing what they say they were going to do.
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00:01:27It doesn't mean they're going to decrease rates.
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00:01:29Maybe they'll just pause, or maybe they will.
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00:01:31Instead of raising rates, they'll say they're going to decrease rates.
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00:01:35If they do that, that's quite a message to
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00:01:37the market that the financial crisis is much worse than we know.
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00:01:41And so as the stock market is going up,
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00:01:44remember, it's buy the rumor, sell the news.
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00:01:46So if the Fed does decide to pivot, that
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00:01:48does not mean the stock market is going to go up.
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00:01:51In fact, I think it's highly likely to go down if the Fed does pivot as the stock
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00:01:56market is already pricing that information in.
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00:02:01Now, we've been talking about how this market is very thin.
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00:02:04Most of the gains are from a handful of
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00:02:06stocks, and it's easy to spot the handful of stocks on this particular graphic.
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00:02:11This is a heat map, a 30 day heat map of the S&P 500.
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00:02:15You can see where all the money is.
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00:02:17The size of the rectangular squares is the value of the company, and you can see
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00:02:24who's winning Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Tesla.
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00:02:28These are all meta.
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00:02:29These are all the big winners and you can see all the smaller companies.
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00:02:32Again, this is the S&P 500, so there's no real small companies here,
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00:02:36but certainly they can be small compared to, say, Apple.
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00:02:39But you can see where all the winning has been over the past 30 days.
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00:02:44Looking at the Canadian market, it's more concentrated.
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00:02:47The mining stocks over here, the
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00:02:49technology stocks over here, and then a spattering of gains.
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00:02:53While there's a lot of the Canadian market is involved in financials and you can see
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00:02:58the financials have not been winners over the last 30 days.
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00:03:02That is certainly no news to anybody.
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00:03:05But here we are.
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00:03:06We're seeing the market make gains on the back of really a handful of
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00:03:12stocks or sectors, and that's not necessarily healthy going forward.
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00:03:16Now, as we've mentioned many times the Nasdaq has been leading the market higher.
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00:03:21It's been leading the market higher from a lower point.
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00:03:24So it's not that impressive just yet.
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00:03:26But over the past couple of months, it's been quite impressive.
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00:03:30We still have a ways to go before we get to the summer highs.
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00:03:34Now, that's a little different than the Semiconductors.
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00:03:36And we've been talking about the semiconductors leading the Nasdaq higher.
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00:03:40They've broken out above the summer highs.
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00:03:42And so the next target to the upside is
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00:03:44this pivot point here from back in the spring of 2022.
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00:03:49Now, if I didn't know what was going on and I wasn't watching the market every day
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00:03:53and I just pulled up the weekly fly paper channel, I basically look at these charts
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00:03:58and just say, Hey, the market is in neutral at the moment.
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00:04:02It hasn't shifted into first gear.
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00:04:05It hasn't shifted into reverse.
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00:04:07It is in neutral.
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00:04:08And that's true for the DAO and the S&P 500.
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00:04:11The Nasdaq is starting to poke its head out above the fly paper channel.
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00:04:15It certainly hasn't broken away from it,
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00:04:17unlike the semiconductors, which broke away from it a while ago.
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00:04:21And you can see the high we made right at the start of 2023.
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00:04:24We haven't taken that high out yet.
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00:04:27So that's going to be something that's going to come up over the next few days.
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00:04:30And if we can take that out, what happens
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00:04:32at this high from back and the start of 2022?
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00:04:36So we've got a couple of resistance points
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00:04:39for the semiconductors, and we'll have to see how the market deals with that.
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00:04:43If they can slice through those areas of
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00:04:45resistance, that's a bullish sign for the overall market.
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00:04:49And then looking at the TSX, we're in the channel, so it's neutral.
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00:04:53Unfortunately, money has come out of the
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00:04:55energy sector, but a lot of it has gone into gold stocks, so that's neutral.
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00:05:00Unfortunately, the weight of the financial sector has been a burden on the TSX.
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00:05:05Now, we did see money come back into the financial sector this week.
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00:05:08We did see some daily buy signals, certainly no weekly buy signals so far.
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00:05:13So for the XLF, we were up just a tick
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00:05:16under three and three quarters %, closing just above the previous week's high.
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00:05:21That could turn out to be bullish going forward.
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00:05:24And then banks, inside week for banks, up 3.23 %.
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00:05:27Inside week for regional banks, just up over three quarters of a %.
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00:05:33Then we saw nice big gains for the broker
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00:05:36dealers and for the insurance stocks, which were up over 4 %.
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00:05:40Still having an Inside Week, and so you
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00:05:42can see that the financial crisis is more focused on the regional banks and the
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00:05:47banks, but not really the broker dealers and the insurance companies.
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00:05:51But again, we're seeing some daily buy signals, certainly no weekly buy signals.
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00:05:56Looking at Canadian financials, we did
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00:05:58close above the previous week's high up 2.93 %.
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00:06:02Canadian banks up 3.06 %.
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00:06:05Again, closing above the previous week's high.
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00:06:07That could be the start of something we'll just have to wait and see.
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00:06:10Now, the best performing Canadian bank stock was National Bank.
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00:06:12Of course, it has very little US exposure, up 4.32 % on the week.
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00:06:18In the US, the best performing financial on the S&P 500 was First Republic.
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00:06:23Now, First Republic was up over 13 % on the week.
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00:06:26But when a stock has fallen from over $200
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00:06:28down towards $10, it's very hard to see a 13 % gain on the chart.
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00:06:34So it looks like an inside week for
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00:06:37First Republic, and of course, an inside week is a week of indecision.
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00:06:42Now, the worst performing financial on the S&P 500 was Citizens Financial.
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00:06:46It was only down 2.35 %.
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00:06:48Again, having an inside week.
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00:06:51Now, the risk on button has been flipped.
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00:06:53Everybody seems to be happy.
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00:06:55Does that mean that gold is going to stop going up?
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00:06:58It got stalled around 2000 and it pulled back just $12 on the week.
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00:07:04Gold stocks, on the other hand, continued to move higher heading towards those highs
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00:07:08from early 2023 on both sides of the border.
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00:07:12Then looking at the cryptocurrencies, we
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00:07:15only follow two and that's Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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00:07:17Both of them had positive week.
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00:07:19So that's part of the risk on trade.
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00:07:22And then we've got the US dollar index
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00:07:25which had an inside week closing slightly lower.
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00:07:27So if the financial world was about to
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00:07:30stumble, we would expect gold to continue to move higher.
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00:07:33We would expect money to flow into the US dollar.
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00:07:36That's not happening at the moment.
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00:07:38So we've got a lot of conflicting signals here and what we need to do is
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00:07:43just follow the money and the money is going up at the moment.
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00:07:47Now, the VIX has come down.
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00:07:48It is back on a weekly sell signal, which
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00:07:50of course, is supportive for higher stock prices.
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00:07:52That would change this coming Friday if the VIX were to close above
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00:07:56$24.93. On a daily basis, we made a new low for this move on Friday.
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00:08:01Things would change on Monday for the VIX
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00:08:03if we closed above $22.92. Of course, if that doesn't happen on Monday, that upper
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00:08:09channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.
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00:08:11We're sitting right at 1875, closed at 1870 on Friday.
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00:08:16This is the bottom of the range for the Vicks.
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00:08:19That does not guarantee a reversal right away, but it's certainly telling us
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00:08:24probably don't have a lot further to go for the VIX.
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00:08:26That may tell us that we don't have a lot further to go on the upside for the stock
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00:08:31market, but we'll just have to wait and see.
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00:08:34Okay, folks, that's all for this weekend's presentation.
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00:08:36There is a lot of danger in the air at the
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00:08:39moment, but we're here to follow the money and the money is going up.
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00:08:43The VIX is coming down, so we're going to continue to follow the money.
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00:08:48If we're wrong and the market starts to
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00:08:50roll over, we want to be wrong for one bar.
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00:08:54And so if you're a long term investor, that one bar is one weekly bar.
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00:08:58If you're a trader, you want to be wrong for one day.
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00:09:01And so if the market starts to reverse, if
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00:09:04the VIX starts to go up, then we need to take action at that time.
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00:09:09But we've got a falling VIX, and for the
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00:09:11most part, we've got a market that wants to move higher, not all sectors, but the
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00:09:16market is showing that it wants to go higher.
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00:09:18And we may see the bank stocks start to come back over the next couple of weeks.
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00:09:22So just follow the money.
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00:09:25Don't worry about the news or people talking about market crashes.
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00:09:28We're not seeing that at the moment.
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00:09:30Even though you can feel that, we're not seeing that.
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00:09:33So yes, April can be a rainy month.
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00:09:36It's slippery when it's wet out there, and we're just going to watch the money and
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00:09:40follow it and not worry about all the other stuff that's going on.
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00:09:44Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
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00:09:45Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. you..