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00:00:00Hello, everyone.
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00:00:01It's Stephen White side here from theuptrend.
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00:00:03com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing and Television.
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00:00:07Well, it's Sunday evening.
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00:00:08Stock Index futures have opened.
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00:00:10With all that going on in Russia this
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00:00:13weekend, stock index futures are pretty firm.
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00:00:16DOW futures currently up 45 points.
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00:00:19So far, the stock index futures are not
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00:00:21reacting to what's going on in Russia at all.
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00:00:24Maybe they know more than the rest of the
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00:00:26world does, but that's the current situation.
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00:00:29Now, I'm very concerned about the weakness
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00:00:32in financials, and we saw interest rates rise around the world this week.
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00:00:36They went up in Canada, they went up in the UK, they went up in Australia.
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00:00:40So we are seeing pressure on interest rates.
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00:00:44And of course, we're still looking for a recession, which I guess everybody is just
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00:00:49trying to push out as far as humanly possible.
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00:00:52But you can see US financials pulled back,
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00:00:54Canadian financials pulled back, and it's really sad to see this lower high here.
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00:00:59And then we started to pull back.
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00:01:00Now, what we have to worry about is do we hold support here?
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00:01:04We came down a couple of weeks ago at the
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00:01:07end of May and retested the areas of support from back in March.
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00:01:12And now, let's see what happens this week,
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00:01:14see if we can find some support or if we keep going.
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00:01:17Now, regional banks were the big losers on the week in the US,
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00:01:21and of course, we're not looking to invest in US regional banks.
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00:01:25We are just looking at it as an indicator,
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00:01:28hoping that there is not a financial crisis caused by regional bank failure.
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00:01:34That is still a possibility.
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00:01:36Now, looking at the seasonality chart, we
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00:01:39had selling all week, and that basically lines up with the seasonality I would have
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00:01:44expected it to start a lot earlier than it did this week.
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00:01:47But from here to the end of the month, it's usually positive.
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00:01:51And of course, coming into month end is
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00:01:53usually bullish, coming into long weekends, and we do have some holidays
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00:01:57coming up on both sides of the border, which usually has a bullish bias.
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00:02:01So we'll just have to see what happens.
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00:02:04Now, the VIX is still very bullish.
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00:02:05If you're a long term investor, we're going to remain long term bullish on the
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00:02:08market as long as the VIX does not start closing above 18.57 this coming Friday.
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00:02:14If you're trading the market, we're going to remain short term bullish
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00:02:18on the market as long as the VIX doesn't close above 14.59 on Monday.
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00:02:23And of course, if that doesn't happen on
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00:02:24Monday, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.
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00:02:28Now, I saw this chart this week.
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00:02:30This is from JP Morgan.
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00:02:31It's a squeeze indicator, and they're
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00:02:35looking at market sentiment, and we're very overbought at the moment.
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00:02:38And last time we were this overbought was back in January.
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00:02:42And if we look at the fly paper channel chart and we go back to that peak in
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00:02:46January, you can see how much of a sell off we got.
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00:02:50And if we map that out over on the
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00:02:51right-hand side, you see that takes us down towards 400.
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00:02:55Mathematically speaking, you can see we
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00:02:57start going down two lines 421, 414.06, a lot of support.
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00:03:03Well, it was previous resistance, which on
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00:03:05the way back down should be expected to act as support.
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00:03:08So that would certainly be a legitimate target to the downside for a pullback.
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00:03:12Of course, if we keep going below that, then that's a stronger indication that the
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00:03:17market is going into a longer term downtrend.
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00:03:20And of course, if we start breaking 400,
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00:03:22that is certainly going to be a huge signal to the market.
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00:03:27Now, this is a heat map of the S&P 500 year to date.
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00:03:32And if you look at what's been working,
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00:03:34these are the stocks we talk about nearly every day, those big cap tech stocks.
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00:03:38Notice the rest of the market not really participating.
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00:03:41And look at how big these squares and rectangles are.
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00:03:45That's the market cap.
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00:03:46That's the overall value of the shares of the company that are trading.
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00:03:51And you can see that if you just take
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00:03:53Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, these are huge components of the market.
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00:03:59And if they start to roll over, they're
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00:04:01just going to crush everybody else out there.
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00:04:03So that is certainly a major concern that
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00:04:06this market is still very thin on the way up.
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00:04:09There's just not that many stocks really participating right now.
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00:04:13Now, looking at the percentage of stocks currently trading above their 50 day
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00:04:17moving average, as you would expect, the Nasdaq is leading.
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00:04:2064 % of Nasdaq 100 stocks are currently trading above their 50 day moving average.
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00:04:26It comes down a bit when you look at the S&P 500.
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00:04:28It comes down more when you look at the
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00:04:30DOW 30, and it comes down a lot more when you're looking at the TSX.
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00:04:36Of course, the TSX is being weighed down by a lot of weak commodity stocks at the
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00:04:41moment, but also the banking stocks are not doing well.
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00:04:43So Canadian market doesn't have the diversification that the US market has.
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00:04:49Now, when we look at a weekly chart of the major ETFs that we follow, you can
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00:04:54see the queues had an inside week, but then when you look at the semiconductors,
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00:04:59they were down over 4.5 % on the week and closed below the previous week's low.
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00:05:04So that's a bearish sign.
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00:05:05It looks like semiconductors may have
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00:05:07peaked this week, but we're not seeing that in NVIDIA.
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00:05:10Nvidia was down on the week just 1.13 %
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00:05:14and certainly did not close below the previous week's low.
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00:05:17Nvidia made a new high this week with a very small pullback.
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00:05:21Looking at the S&P 500, it also had an inside week.
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00:05:23Inside weeks, of course, are weeks of indecision.
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00:05:26The market is waiting for additional informationbefore it makes a bigger move.
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00:05:32And of course, in the S&P 500, you've got Tesla still holding up fairly well.
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00:05:37Tesla traded up into that open gap.
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00:05:39It traded above the open gap, which of course is now closed.
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00:05:42But you can see that that gap area has
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00:05:45acted as an area of resistance for the market.
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00:05:49Next up, we're looking at the DOW.
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00:05:50And of course, in 2023, the DOW is trailing the Nasdaq and the S&P 500.
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00:05:56We pulled back this week, closed below the previous week's low, and once again, we
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00:06:00failed to break out above 343.75. This is an area of resistance
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00:06:05that's been in place for a year now, and that looks like it's the top for this
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00:06:10particular move, but we'll just have to wait and see.
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00:06:13What's not working on the DOW in 2023?
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00:06:16Well, the biggest loser has been 3M
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00:06:18followed by Walgreens, followed by Chevron.
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00:06:21What's been working on the DOW?
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00:06:23Well, of course, let's just point at Apple.
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00:06:25Apple made a new high this week at 187.56. Our next price target was 187.50. So
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00:06:32chitchat, you got to lock in some profits up there.
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00:06:35Congratulations.
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00:06:36Now looking at the ishares for the TSX 60,
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00:06:39we've been on a sell signal for five weeks now.
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00:06:41We made a new closing low this week and you can see we're breaking down below
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00:06:4629.69. Our next price target and the next potential area
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00:06:51of support is at 28.91. You can see that it acted as support earlier in the year.
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00:06:57What's working on the TSX?
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00:06:58Well, once again, we have to go back to
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00:07:00technology with Shopify being the big winner in 2023, followed by Open Text.
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00:07:05Open Text is looking pretty Bearish right now.
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00:07:07We've been down three weeks in a row.
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00:07:09It looks like we've put in a top, waiting for a sell signal with a close below 52.
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00:07:1368. This coming Friday.
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00:07:15Then our next winner for 2023 is Kominko.
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00:07:19Looking like it put in a top two weeks
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00:07:21ago, and we'll have to see if we can continue to move lower from here.
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00:07:25Now looking at the losers for 2023 on the
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00:07:28TSX 60, Nutrien has been the big loser, followed by Cenovus,
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00:07:32followed by Pembina Pipeline which put in a new low for 2023 on Friday.
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00:07:39Let's finish off looking at commodities and starting off with energy.
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00:07:43We had crude oil down just under 3 % on the week, so no change in trend there.
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00:07:48Natural gas was up on the week and is back on a buy signal as of Friday's close.
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00:07:53Then looking at the metals, we had a
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00:07:55reversal in copper, so still on a weekly sell signal, no change there.
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00:07:59A lower low for gold and a lower low for gold and a lower low for silver.
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00:08:02So no help to the mining stocks from commodity prices this week.
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00:08:08Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.
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00:08:11Thank you very much for your time and attention.
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00:08:13Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.