Stock Market Timing Television - Weekend Edition 06252023

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Hello, everyone.

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It's Stephen White side here from theuptrend.

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com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing and Television.

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Well, it's Sunday evening.

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Stock Index futures have opened.

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With all that going on in Russia this

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weekend, stock index futures are pretty firm.

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DOW futures currently up 45 points.

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So far, the stock index futures are not

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reacting to what's going on in Russia at all.

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Maybe they know more than the rest of the

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world does, but that's the current situation.

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Now, I'm very concerned about the weakness

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in financials, and we saw interest rates rise around the world this week.

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They went up in Canada, they went up in the UK, they went up in Australia.

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So we are seeing pressure on interest rates.

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And of course, we're still looking for a recession, which I guess everybody is just

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trying to push out as far as humanly possible.

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But you can see US financials pulled back,

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Canadian financials pulled back, and it's really sad to see this lower high here.

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And then we started to pull back.

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Now, what we have to worry about is do we hold support here?

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We came down a couple of weeks ago at the

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end of May and retested the areas of support from back in March.

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And now, let's see what happens this week,

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see if we can find some support or if we keep going.

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Now, regional banks were the big losers on the week in the US,

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and of course, we're not looking to invest in US regional banks.

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We are just looking at it as an indicator,

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hoping that there is not a financial crisis caused by regional bank failure.

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That is still a possibility.

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Now, looking at the seasonality chart, we

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had selling all week, and that basically lines up with the seasonality I would have

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expected it to start a lot earlier than it did this week.

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But from here to the end of the month, it's usually positive.

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And of course, coming into month end is

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usually bullish, coming into long weekends, and we do have some holidays

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coming up on both sides of the border, which usually has a bullish bias.

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So we'll just have to see what happens.

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Now, the VIX is still very bullish.

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If you're a long term investor, we're going to remain long term bullish on the

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market as long as the VIX does not start closing above 18.57 this coming Friday.

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If you're trading the market, we're going to remain short term bullish

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on the market as long as the VIX doesn't close above 14.59 on Monday.

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And of course, if that doesn't happen on

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Monday, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.

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Now, I saw this chart this week.

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This is from JP Morgan.

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It's a squeeze indicator, and they're

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looking at market sentiment, and we're very overbought at the moment.

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And last time we were this overbought was back in January.

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And if we look at the fly paper channel chart and we go back to that peak in

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January, you can see how much of a sell off we got.

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And if we map that out over on the

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right-hand side, you see that takes us down towards 400.

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Mathematically speaking, you can see we

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start going down two lines 421, 414.06, a lot of support.

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Well, it was previous resistance, which on

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the way back down should be expected to act as support.

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So that would certainly be a legitimate target to the downside for a pullback.

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Of course, if we keep going below that, then that's a stronger indication that the

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market is going into a longer term downtrend.

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And of course, if we start breaking 400,

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that is certainly going to be a huge signal to the market.

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Now, this is a heat map of the S&P 500 year to date.

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And if you look at what's been working,

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these are the stocks we talk about nearly every day, those big cap tech stocks.

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Notice the rest of the market not really participating.

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And look at how big these squares and rectangles are.

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That's the market cap.

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That's the overall value of the shares of the company that are trading.

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And you can see that if you just take

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Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, these are huge components of the market.

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And if they start to roll over, they're

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just going to crush everybody else out there.

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So that is certainly a major concern that

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this market is still very thin on the way up.

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There's just not that many stocks really participating right now.

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Now, looking at the percentage of stocks currently trading above their 50 day

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moving average, as you would expect, the Nasdaq is leading.

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64 % of Nasdaq 100 stocks are currently trading above their 50 day moving average.

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It comes down a bit when you look at the S&P 500.

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It comes down more when you look at the

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DOW 30, and it comes down a lot more when you're looking at the TSX.

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Of course, the TSX is being weighed down by a lot of weak commodity stocks at the

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moment, but also the banking stocks are not doing well.

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So Canadian market doesn't have the diversification that the US market has.

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Now, when we look at a weekly chart of the major ETFs that we follow, you can

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see the queues had an inside week, but then when you look at the semiconductors,

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they were down over 4.5 % on the week and closed below the previous week's low.

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So that's a bearish sign.

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It looks like semiconductors may have

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peaked this week, but we're not seeing that in NVIDIA.

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Nvidia was down on the week just 1.13 %

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and certainly did not close below the previous week's low.

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Nvidia made a new high this week with a very small pullback.

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Looking at the S&P 500, it also had an inside week.

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Inside weeks, of course, are weeks of indecision.

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The market is waiting for additional informationbefore it makes a bigger move.

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And of course, in the S&P 500, you've got Tesla still holding up fairly well.

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Tesla traded up into that open gap.

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It traded above the open gap, which of course is now closed.

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But you can see that that gap area has

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acted as an area of resistance for the market.

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Next up, we're looking at the DOW.

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And of course, in 2023, the DOW is trailing the Nasdaq and the S&P 500.

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We pulled back this week, closed below the previous week's low, and once again, we

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failed to break out above 343.75. This is an area of resistance

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that's been in place for a year now, and that looks like it's the top for this

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particular move, but we'll just have to wait and see.

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What's not working on the DOW in 2023?

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Well, the biggest loser has been 3M

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followed by Walgreens, followed by Chevron.

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What's been working on the DOW?

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Well, of course, let's just point at Apple.

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Apple made a new high this week at 187.56. Our next price target was 187.50. So

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chitchat, you got to lock in some profits up there.

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Congratulations.

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Now looking at the ishares for the TSX 60,

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we've been on a sell signal for five weeks now.

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We made a new closing low this week and you can see we're breaking down below

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29.69. Our next price target and the next potential area

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of support is at 28.91. You can see that it acted as support earlier in the year.

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What's working on the TSX?

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Well, once again, we have to go back to

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technology with Shopify being the big winner in 2023, followed by Open Text.

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Open Text is looking pretty Bearish right now.

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We've been down three weeks in a row.

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It looks like we've put in a top, waiting for a sell signal with a close below 52.

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68. This coming Friday.

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Then our next winner for 2023 is Kominko.

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Looking like it put in a top two weeks

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ago, and we'll have to see if we can continue to move lower from here.

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Now looking at the losers for 2023 on the

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TSX 60, Nutrien has been the big loser, followed by Cenovus,

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followed by Pembina Pipeline which put in a new low for 2023 on Friday.

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Let's finish off looking at commodities and starting off with energy.

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We had crude oil down just under 3 % on the week, so no change in trend there.

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Natural gas was up on the week and is back on a buy signal as of Friday's close.

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Then looking at the metals, we had a

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reversal in copper, so still on a weekly sell signal, no change there.

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A lower low for gold and a lower low for gold and a lower low for silver.

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So no help to the mining stocks from commodity prices this week.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.

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Thank you very much for your time and attention.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

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