Stock Market Timing Television - 06012023

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.

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In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are very quiet.

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DOWfutures currently unchanged while the

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Nasdaq is slightly higher in the premarket on Thursday morning.

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Let's start off this morning's presentation doing a recap of the month of

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May, and we can start off looking at the S&P 500.

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Nothing new here.

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All the big cap tech stocks were the winners for the month of May, and you can

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see the majority of the S&P 500 actually closed lower for the month.

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T hat's a problem we've been dealing with for a while now.

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There's the DOW pulling back into the channel down 3.38 %.

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S&p 500 closed up just under half a % and is back on a monthly buy signal.

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Joining the Nasdaq, which was up nearly 8 % on the month.

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Then looking at the Sox or the chip sector, which has been on a buy signal for

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six months now, was up 14.3 % for the month.

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Looking at the Canadian market, and this

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chart isn't as helpful, this particular heat map is not based on the month of

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May's trading, but the trading for the last 30 days.

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You can see the tech stocks where the winners over here.

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You can see that one bank actually

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is positive, but that's based on 30 days for the month of May.

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It was actually down on the month, so

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not as much fun in the Canadian market, which was down.

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The I shares for the TSX 60 were down

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5.32 % for the month, still on a monthly buy signal, so no change in trend there.

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Now, we've been quite concerned about banks in the financial sector in 2023.

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US Bank stocks were down just a tick under 7 % for the month.

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Regional banks continue to move lower, down 8.65 %.

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So they're not getting as much media

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attention, but they're continuing to move lower.

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Canadian financials were down 5.37 % while

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Canadian banks were down 6.45 % for the month.

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So in both cases, still on monthly sell signals.

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Now, what worked well in the US on the S&P 500, it was NVIDIA, which was up 36.34 %.

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What didn't work on the S&P 500 was Advanced Auto Parts.

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It's been on a monthly sell signal for a while now, down

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41.93 % and actually just right down at the lows from back in early 2020.

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What worked in Canada?

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Well, it's hard to notice on the chart, but we do have BlackBerry back on a

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monthly buy signal up 38.07 % for the month.

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The big loser, Canopy Growth, which was down 35.43 %.

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The TSX is decommissioning the Canadian Cannabis Index.

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You can still, of course, trade the ETFs.

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You've got the Horizons Marijuana Life ETF, which was down 9.94 % for the month.

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And then in the US, Alternative Harvest, which was down 9.34 % for the month.

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Now, if you're following marijuana stocks

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and you're still looking to play them on the long side, you really need to just

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narrow your focus quite a bit in your expectations.

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We should have found support at the $10

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level, and we're now trading at $3.10. So that area of support has broken.

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You need to just eliminate all this previous trading action.

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This market is probably never going to come back into that range.

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If we look at the weekly fly paper channel, you can see that we're coming

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down to the $7 level, and that's really your trading range.

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So if you're looking up in any of these charts, and if they do start to turn

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around and you do start to get buy signals, the stuff over at the left is

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just a dream that will never happen again for this particular sector.

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The sector is probably just going to get

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eaten up by drug companies, and you'll never have to worry about how the highs

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from 2020, 2021, those will never come back into play.

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Looking at gold, gold was down over

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$35 for the month, still on a monthly buy signal, no change there.

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Crude oil was down

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9.14 % for the month, still on a monthly sell signal, no change there.

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Now, moving from monthly charts to daily

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charts, of course, we're still waiting to see if the debt ceiling can get resolved.

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In the news this morning, we've got Salesforce out with earnings.

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Now, Salesforce is still on a buy signal here, making a new high yesterday.

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Looking for a close on Thursday below

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208.60. So far, we were trading down not as low as 208.

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60. We're trading down to 21106.

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Last time I checked, of course, that

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number is going to be different when you check out Salesforce in the premarket.

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Our next price target was 225.

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We hit that yesterday.

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So chitchat, ng, congratulations.

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You got to lock in some profits at 225 before the pullback.

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Now, I always like to look at the midterm

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chart to see if there's any difference between the right side and the midterm.

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Right now, they are very close together.

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So we'll have to see how Salesforce makes out on Thursday.

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Looking at the VIX, the VIX is still on a

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buy signal that's supportive for lower stock prices.

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If we get a close below 1728, that would open up the market to go higher from here.

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Looking at the US dollar index, we made a new high for this move.

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At the same time, bond prices moved up nicely again on Wednesday, giving us a buy

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signal for the 30 year bond and a sell signal for bond yields.

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Then looking at the price of gold, gold

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moved up yesterday, looking for a close above

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$2,002.90. That would give us a new buy signal on Thursday.

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Gold stocks moved up on both sides of the

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border, but not enough to give us a buy signal.

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Then we saw crude oil move down yesterday, 1.88 % for the day and energy stocks also

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moved down over 2 % on the TSX, 1.76 % on the S&P 500.

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Then looking at the iS shares for the TSX 60, new low for this move on Wednesday.

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Looking at the DAO, the DAO closed

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slightly lower yesterday, still on a sell signal.

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S&P 500 pulled back to the upper channel

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line for the SPY, we're looking for a close below 413.92 on Thursday.

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Then we've got the QQQ's still up in the

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sky well away from any potential sell signal on Thursday.

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Then looking at the chip sector, you can

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see the big reversal that we had and we did make a new high.

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We did run up and tag 212.50. So

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if you had an order in up there, that got filled.

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And of course, if we look back, you can

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see we previously peaked back at the 212.50 level a few months ago.

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Let's finish off today's presentation looking at a stock that came up

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during a one on one tutorial on Wednesday, and that's Ambarella.

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It collapsed yesterday but did not give us a sell signal.

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So we're looking for a close below $70.57.

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And you can see that it actually opened below that level yesterday and traded

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below that but did not close below that level.

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It closed at 72.32. So even though it was

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a big down day, not enough to give us a sell signal.

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Now, if we go back to when this trade started, and of course, it's the first

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close above the upper channel line, gives you a buy signal.

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And then we're looking for the first close

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below the lower channel line to totally kick us out of a trade.

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Now, while we're waiting to be kicked out,

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we want to try to take some money off the table.

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68.75 would have been far too close to use as a price target.

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So then you look up $75 and 81.25, those would have been your next two targets.

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That would be your playing field.

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$75, is that a legitimate target?

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Well, there's lots of support over here.

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And so, yeah, that's a legitimate target.

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So you would have put an order in to sell

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half of your position at 75, then you would have put an order in to sell half

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your position at 81.25. Any history at that level?

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Yes.

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So that's certainly a legitimate target to the upside.

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And then, of course, you could have put

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another order in up there at $87.50 once the $81.25 order was filled.

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It doesn't look like we're going to get up to that level.

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You did have a chance to lock in profits

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at $75 and then $81.25. Now you're just sitting with a partial position looking to

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see if the market will recover or if we do go down and close below the 70.

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57 level.

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That's the number we're looking for on Thursday.

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And if we close below that level, then you

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get to sell the remainder of your position after already locking in profits.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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I see the futures have slipped a little

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bit, but it's not going to get anybody overly excited.

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Have a great day.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

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And on Friday morning, we're going to take

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a closer look at the Canadian stock market.

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