Stock Market Timing 10012023

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Hello, everyone.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.

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com. Hope you're having a wonderful weekend.

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Very nice weather up here this weekend.

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Let's start off with a little housekeeping.

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This is probably going to be my last

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video that I'm going to be doing on Saturday or Sundays.

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I've got some new partnerships starting up

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and I'm going to be doing regular Monday to Friday videos.

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For many years, I didn't do a Monday video because I did a Sunday video.

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But to fit in with everybody's publishing

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schedules, I will be doing Monday videos from now on.

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Now, some people are asking about how our

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dog, Ursha, is doing and it's been three years since we adopted her.

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First of all, we fostered her, then we

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adopted her and she's four years old now and she's doing very well.

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So thank you very much for everyone who is asking about her.

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Now, let's start off looking at the seasonality chart for the S&P 500.

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We were looking for buying into the middle

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of September and then selling into the end of the month.

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We didn't quite get that.

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We certainly started off on the right foot, but quickly that started to fail.

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We had one day where we closed above the

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upper channel line that quickly reversed and we've been heading lower ever since.

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Our mathematical target was 421.88 on both

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the daily and weekly chart and we traded right down to that.

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In fact, we got it as close as less than

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50 cents away from our price target before the market reversed on Wednesday and

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started to move back up on Thursday and Friday.

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Friday ended on a negative note, but it

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did just start to trade above Thursday's high.

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Now, the US government is not

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shutting down this weekend and so we could see a relief rally on Monday.

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If we do start to move up, you can see

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we're so far finding support at the 200-day moving average.

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The 50-day moving or the 100-day moving average is not that far above us.

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You can see we're projecting up to that

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level and then a reversal back down to make lower lows.

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We do have other targets on the way back up.

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The bottom of the open gap is at 435.97 for the SPY.

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Of course, we've got the August lows at 433.01. Then our next mathematical target

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is 437.50. That doesn't take us all the way up to fill the gap.

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If we are heading up in that area, then

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the top of the open gap is just above the 437.50 level.

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Of course, we'll watch that closely

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depending on what the market does going forward.

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Now, the market started to fall apart when Apple started to fall apart.

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It took some time for some of those other

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tech stocks to roll over, but it was really Apple that started the move down.

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On Thursday, it made a new low.

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On Friday, it closed higher, but only by 52 cents.

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We'll be keeping an eye on Apple.

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If the market wants to go up on Monday, a

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close above $176.15 would give us a new buy signal for Apple.

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Now, remember, in the month of September,

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we started off with a wide bar and then we had two inside weeks in a row.

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An inside week and then an inside week of an inside week.

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Price action was starting to contract and we were looking for expansion either

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to the upside or to the downside and it expanded to the downside.

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I don't think that's going to correct itself very quickly, but we'll just have

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to keep an eye on which way the market goes next.

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Now, the VIX is still on a weekly buy

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signal that, of course, is negative for stocks.

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Things would change this coming Friday if the VIX were to close below $13.88.

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If you're watching the market on Monday, we traded all the way down to the lower

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channel line on Friday before reversing and actually closing higher on the day.

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On Monday, if the VIX were to close below

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$15.74, that would be supportive for higher stock prices across the board.

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You can see we didn't make it too much

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higher than the 18.75 level, found resistance up there.

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We'll be watching to see if we can take

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out that recent high going forward in the month of October.

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Now, the US dollar index moved up, moved up to our next weekly price target of

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106.25. On the daily chart, we dipped into the channel on Friday before reversing.

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On Monday, a close on the US dollar index below 105.41 would give us a sell signal,

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and that would probably be supportive for higher stock prices at this time.

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Now, bonds continue to move lower this week.

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Bond yields continue to move higher.

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That was one of the reasons we're seeing downward pressure on the stock market.

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Now, while bond yields were going up, utilities were continuing to decline.

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In the US, the SPDR Utility index closed down 6.89% on the TSX, the iShares Utility

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ETF closed down 6.03 %, making new lows for this move in both cases.

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Now, the TSX has had a terrible year.

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It's been in a tight range.

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It's currently up less than 1 % for the year.

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So far, it's traded between these two

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levels all year, and we've continued to make lower highs.

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We made a high back here, then a lower

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high, then a lower high, and then recently, we made another lower high.

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That is all bearish.

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Now we're looking to see if we start to make lower lows.

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So far support is holding at 19,375.

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That is holding us in check.

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We'll just have to see if we take out this week's low this week.

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Now, the seasonality chart for the TSX

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puts more emphasis on October to the downside than September.

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September, we're supposed to see buying

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into the middle of the month, then selling into the end, and continued selling into

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October before the market starts to reverse and head up.

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That's what we're looking for, is this big

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end-of-year rally to start at some point, and it certainly didn't start on Friday.

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Now looking at crude oil, crude oil made a new high for this move this week and ended

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the week just slightly higher up 45 cents on the week.

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The seasonality for crude oil doesn't look

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good from the middle of October on, so we'll have to keep an eye on that.

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It didn't peak at the end of June this year.

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In fact, that's when the rally really started.

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The seasonal tendency is we peak in the

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middle of October and head down into early December.

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Then looking at natural gas, it's been dead all year.

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I certainly couldn't predict this going

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into 2023, but we've been trading up, above and below the 3.13 level all year.

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If we're really going to see things change

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going forward, we need to see natural gas start breaking out above 3.40.

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The seasonality for natural gas looks pretty good from here on.

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You can see that we do dip into October, but then we actually make a higher high, a

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higher low, then a higher high into the end of November.

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From now to the end of November, things

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could be good for natural gas if the seasonal tendencies start to kick in.

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Then after the end of November, it looks like we get selling going into year end.

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We'll just have to keep an eye on that.

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Now, we do have early warning signals on

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the weekly charts for energy stocks on both sides of the border.

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Looking at the iShares for the TSX Energy Sector, we are still looking okay here.

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We did trade below the previous week's low.

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Last week, we actually closed below the previous week's low, which is bearish.

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Then this week, we continue to trade

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below, but we came back going into the end of the week and ended the week up 2.69%.

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Looking at the energy stocks in the US, there's the SPDR Energy ETF.

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We got an early warning signal up there.

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Again, three weeks ago, we peaked.

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The next week, we closed below the previous week's low.

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This week was actually an inside week for energy stocks in the US.

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In the US, in the end of the week, up 1.21%. I think time is running out for the

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energy sectors on both sides of the border.

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If we go back and look at the TSX, the TSX has traded up to the highs from late 2022.

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So far, those highs are holding us in check.

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Then looking at the US

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energy sector, we're trading up to the highs from about the same time period, and

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those highs are currently holding us in check.

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It looks to me like the run for the energy

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sector is probably going to come to an end in the next couple of weeks.

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Then looking at the price of gold, it was

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down $79.50 on the week, making a new low for this move, starting to dip below 1875.

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On our weekly chart, our next price

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target, if we start to break away from 1875, is 1750.

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Then looking at the seasonality of gold,

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it looks weak going into the first week of October.

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Then from here into the start of December should be pretty good.

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But so far, we have no evidence that the

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market has started to turn around just yet.

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Now, energy stocks on both sides of the

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border have been weak for most of this year.

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Looking at the GDX, we had a made a new low on Friday.

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Looking at the XGD, we also made a new low for this move.

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We've been on cell signals in both sides of the border for quite a while now.

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Okay, that's all I wanted to cover today.

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I'll be back in the morning and we'll look at some more daily charts.

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We'll look at the most actively traded

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stocks on both sides of the border and take it from there.

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Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

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Next time you'll hear my voice, of course, is going to be on Monday morning.

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