-
Fair value Commodities are mixed with crude oil higher while
Fair value Commodities are mixed with crude oil higher while gold and natural gas are slightly lower on Friday morning
-
stock market was rather subdued on Thursday, compared to Wednesday's
stock market was rather subdued on Thursday, compared to Wednesday's trading activity but not so much for the rest of the market
-
dollar Index continue to move lower, making a new low
dollar Index continue to move lower, making a new low for this move and we saw the Vicks move lower on Thursday
-
Also making a new low for this move and closing
Also making a new low for this move and closing below the $20 potential support area
-
Looking at the Dow diamonds, you can see that we
Looking at the Dow diamonds, you can see that we are close to slightly below the previous day after making a new high
-
Now, things looked a little different north of the Border,
Now, things looked a little different north of the Border, there's the ishares for this TSX, 60 putting in a new high yesterday and closing higher on the day, not the same time
-
We did generate a bearish reversal signal and do we
We did generate a bearish reversal signal and do we saw a lot of those on Thursday, when we analyze this one
-
And you can see that we actually closed, lower than
And you can see that we actually closed, lower than we opened, after making a new high
-
So that gave us a bearish reversal signal, couple of
So that gave us a bearish reversal signal, couple of things to consider when you're looking at that signal because it often marks the top four move, and that is certainly could be the case here
-
So that is certain Measured move and do we have
So that is certain Measured move and do we have certainly broke out above the August highs and that is bullish
-
Now, what does spurred the TSX Sun yesterday will gold
Now, what does spurred the TSX Sun yesterday will gold was a major contributor and there's the price of gold, shooting up above the previous high, and you can see that we closed just above the 1812,
-
And then 1875, now to get there, we need to
And then 1875, now to get there, we need to take out the highs from August so that is going to be the first level of resistance
-
We need to consider we certainly have not broken away
We need to consider we certainly have not broken away from the 1812 50 level we just closed above it
-
It does not look like we're going to try to
It does not look like we're going to try to do anything about creating new highs on Friday that gold stocks followed gold higher yesterday
-
There's the TSX, Global gold index making a new high
There's the TSX, Global gold index making a new high on Thursday and there's the GDX also making a new high on Thursday
-
At the same time, CIBC cratered on Thursday and that's
At the same time, CIBC cratered on Thursday and that's not something you see very often in the Canadian banking sector
-
It looks like I don't know what it looks like
It looks like I don't know what it looks like but that is incredibly weird
-
There are some banks that look fairly normal right now,
There are some banks that look fairly normal right now, such as the Bank of New York and JPMorgan but beyond that, a lot of US Banks look like this
-
It is made a series of lower lows this week
It is made a series of lower lows this week and if we look at a monthly charge, you can see this financial institution that has been in a long-term downtrend
-
I just for reference compare that to Bank of America,
I just for reference compare that to Bank of America, which in the same time
-
Was able to move up from $15 all the way
Was able to move up from $15 all the way up to $50 before, pulling back in 2022
-
I typically during a rate, tightening cycle, some financial institution
I typically during a rate, tightening cycle, some financial institution will have problems
-
Sometimes just said, one or two and people are betting
Sometimes just said, one or two and people are betting money that enduring this rate
-
Now, looking at energy, crude oil was up yesterday, not
Now, looking at energy, crude oil was up yesterday, not enough to give us a Buy Signal, natural gas was down yesterday and not enough to give us a cell signal
-
Looking at energy stocks of the spider energy ETF is
Looking at energy stocks of the spider energy ETF is still Treading Water up here
-
For equipment makers, and explorers are all still on Daly
For equipment makers, and explorers are all still on Daly cell signals
-
For the, TSX energy index still on a cell signal
For the, TSX energy index still on a cell signal here, Treading Water up at these levels, were up at the top of the panic zones
-
And then if we look at the US market, the
And then if we look at the US market, the spider energy ETF, we were able to not only a test the summer, highs with trade slightly above them
-
In both cases are Panic Zone, charts are projecting lower
In both cases are Panic Zone, charts are projecting lower prices from here
-
Of course, the weakness in any projection is we don't
Of course, the weakness in any projection is we don't know what we don't know and that is certainly true for any of the projections
-
It certainly has not started yet to the first indication
It certainly has not started yet to the first indication that that may happen is if we start closing below the recent low, okay, folks that is all for
-
This morning's presentation, we're waiting for employ Numbers to come
This morning's presentation, we're waiting for employ Numbers to come out at 8:30 I'm going to publish this as soon as possible and then the translated versions will be available about an hour later
-
Enjoy the rest of your day, enjoy your weekend and
Enjoy the rest of your day, enjoy your weekend and the next time you hear my voice is on Sunday
-
00:00:01Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Friday morning.
-
00:00:03In the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet.
-
00:00:06Employment numbers are coming out at 830. So far.
-
00:00:09Stock index futures are below fair value.
-
00:00:11Commodities are mixed with crude oil
-
00:00:14higher, while gold and natural gas are slightly lower on Friday morning.
-
00:00:19Now. The US.
-
00:00:20Stock market was rather subdued on Thursday compared to Wednesday's trading
-
00:00:24activity, but not so much for the rest of the market.
-
00:00:27Bond prices continued to move higher. The US.
-
00:00:30Dollar index continued to move lower, making a new low for this move.
-
00:00:34And we saw the VIX move lower on Thursday, also making a new low for this move and
-
00:00:40closing below the $20 potential support area.
-
00:00:44Looking at the Dow Diamonds, you can see
-
00:00:46that we closed slightly below the previous day after making a new high.
-
00:00:51That's also true for the SP 500.
-
00:00:54The Nasdaq 100 closed a little higher on the day.
-
00:00:58And then looking at the Russell 2000, we
-
00:01:00pulled back, not able to break out above the November highs.
-
00:01:05Now, things looked a little different north of the border.
-
00:01:08There's the I shares for this TSX 60
-
00:01:10putting in a new high yesterday and closing higher on the day.
-
00:01:14Now, at the same time, we did generate a
-
00:01:17bearish reversal signal, and we saw a lot of those on Thursday.
-
00:01:21When we analyzed this one, you can see
-
00:01:24that we actually closed lower than we opened after making a new high.
-
00:01:28So that gave us a bearish reversal signal.
-
00:01:31A couple of things to consider when you're looking at that signal, because it often
-
00:01:35marks the top four move, and that certainly could be the case here.
-
00:01:40But at the end of the day, we still closed higher.
-
00:01:43And then we also did not close below the previous days low.
-
00:01:46Those would be the other two indicators I would be looking at.
-
00:01:50We did end up closing higher on the day that's bullish.
-
00:01:53And we certainly did not close below the previous days low.
-
00:01:55So that is also bullish.
-
00:01:57Now, at the same time, we're watching the Ishares for the TSX 60, the TSX itself hit
-
00:02:02our next price target yesterday, so that is certainly a measured move.
-
00:02:06And we have certainly broke out above the August highs, and that is bullish.
-
00:02:10We'll just have to see if that resistance holds over the next few days.
-
00:02:15Now, what spurred the TSX on yesterday?
-
00:02:17Well, gold was a major contributor, and
-
00:02:20there's the price of gold shooting up above the previous high.
-
00:02:23And you can see that we closed just above the 1812.
-
00:02:2750 level, and our next target is 1843.
-
00:02:3075 and then 1875.
-
00:02:33Now, to get there, we need to take out the highs from August.
-
00:02:36So that is going to be the first level of resistance we need to consider.
-
00:02:40We certainly have not broken away from the 1812.
-
00:02:4350 level. We just closed above it.
-
00:02:45So that is the first step.
-
00:02:47It does not look like we're going to try
-
00:02:49to do anything about creating new highs on Friday.
-
00:02:52Now, gold stocks followed gold hire yesterday.
-
00:02:56There's the TSX Global Gold Index making a new high on Thursday.
-
00:03:00And there's the GDX, also making a new high on Thursday.
-
00:03:04Now, bank stocks had a few interesting moves yesterday.
-
00:03:09There's the TSX Bank Index closing at the upper channel line.
-
00:03:13We saw a new high for the TD Bank at the same time, CIBC cratered on Thursday.
-
00:03:18And that's not something you see very often in the Canadian banking sector.
-
00:03:23Now in the US.
-
00:03:24When we look at the SPDR Bank ETF, you can see that it looks like I don't know what
-
00:03:30it looks like, but that is incredibly weird.
-
00:03:33It's not something you see very often.
-
00:03:35There are some banks that look fairly
-
00:03:37normal right now, such as the Bank of New York and JPMorgan.
-
00:03:40But beyond that, a lot of US.
-
00:03:42Banks look like this.
-
00:03:45Now there's one financial institution the
-
00:03:47world is watching closely, and that is Credit Swiss.
-
00:03:50It has made a series of lower lows this week.
-
00:03:53And if we look at a monthly chart, you can
-
00:03:55see this financial institution has been in a longterm downtrend.
-
00:03:59Just for reference, compare that to Bank of America, which in the same time period
-
00:04:03was able to move up from $15 all the way up to $50 before pulling back in 2022.
-
00:04:09So they are certainly two different animals.
-
00:04:12Typically, during a rate tightening cycle,
-
00:04:15some financial institution will have problems.
-
00:04:18Sometimes it's a lot, sometimes it's one or two.
-
00:04:22And people are betting money that during
-
00:04:24this rate tightening cycle, Credit Swiss is not going to make it through.
-
00:04:29Now, looking at energy, crude always up
-
00:04:31yesterday, not enough to give us a buy signal.
-
00:04:34Natural gas was down yesterday, not enough to give us a sell signal.
-
00:04:38Looking at energy stocks, the SPDR Energy ETF is still treading water up here.
-
00:04:43That's also true for equipment makers and
-
00:04:46explorers, all still on daily sell signals.
-
00:04:50That's also true for the TSX Energy Index,
-
00:04:53still on a sell signal here, treading water.
-
00:04:56Up at these levels, we're up at the top of
-
00:04:58the panic zones, not able to retest the summer highs.
-
00:05:02And then if we look at the US market Spdr Energy ETF, we were able to not only test
-
00:05:09the summer highs, but trade slightly above them.
-
00:05:12In both cases, our panic zone charts are projecting lower prices from here.
-
00:05:16Of course, the weakness in any projection is we don't know what we don't know.
-
00:05:21And that is certainly true for any of the projections that we make.
-
00:05:25So for the SPDREnergy ETF, we're looking for a move down to $75 at some point.
-
00:05:31It certainly has not started yet.
-
00:05:34The first indication that that may happen
-
00:05:36is if we start closing below the recent low.
-
00:05:40Okay folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
-
00:05:43We're waiting for appointment numbers to come out at 830.
-
00:05:46I'm going to publish this as soon as possible.
-
00:05:48And then the translated versions will be available about an hour later.
-
00:05:53Enjoy the rest of your day.
-
00:05:54Enjoy your weekend.
-
00:05:55And the next time you'll hear my voice is on Sunday.