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00:00:00Hello everyone. It's Stephen Whiteside here from the
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00:00:03uptrend.com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.
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00:00:07Well, the Christmas season officially started around here this weekend.
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00:00:11We went to the annual local community
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00:00:13Christmas concert at the Danforth Music Hall and we had a wonderful afternoon.
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00:00:17The concert was amazing, as always.
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00:00:20It's just wonderful to see how much local talent there is around here.
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00:00:24Now, we had a busy week, lots of noise,
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00:00:26but at the end of the day, not much happened.
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00:00:29I still agree with this guy.
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00:00:30The stock market is about to top.
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00:00:32It might not do it on Monday, but I think
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00:00:35the stock market is working its way to putting in a top right now.
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00:00:39Now, on Wednesday, we had the markets
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00:00:41overreaction to the Fed Chairman's comments.
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00:00:44We saw the Dow up over 700 points.
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00:00:46Of course, that's the number the media likes to follow the most.
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00:00:50And what I was looking for, it seemed like a very suspicious day.
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00:00:54It seemed like a lot of short covering
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00:00:56during and after the Fed Chairman's remarks.
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00:01:00And what we're looking for is some follow
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00:01:02through to the upside, some interest, some new money to come into the market.
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00:01:06So if you follow the S&P 500 ETF, the spy,
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00:01:11on Wednesday it had over 144,000,000 shares traded.
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00:01:15On Thursday.
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00:01:16Only 76 million.
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00:01:17And on Friday it was 85 million and change.
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00:01:20So as you can see, we didn't see a lot of
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00:01:22new money come into the market over the next couple of days.
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00:01:26Now, looking at the VIX on a weekly basis, we are down another 7% and change right
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00:01:31down at the lows that we haven't seen since the summer.
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00:01:3418.75 is our mathematical target both on the weekly and daily charts.
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00:01:40You can see that back in the spring, the VIX bottoms just around 18.75.
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00:01:45That also happened in the summer and I'm
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00:01:47anticipating it to happen right around now.
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00:01:51Looking at a daily chart, you can see we're coming down.
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00:01:53We're actually broken through the lows from back in August on a daily chart.
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00:01:57If you're following the market on Monday,
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00:01:59we're looking for a close on the VIX above 22.
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00:02:0266 on Monday to give us a new buy signal.
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00:02:05Of course, if that doesn't happen on
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00:02:07Monday, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower.
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00:02:11Let's continue on and look at some of the other trends we've been following.
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00:02:14We've seen bonds move up over the past couple of weeks.
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00:02:17Whether you're looking at the 30 year bond or the TLT.
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00:02:20The TLT was actually up over 4% on the week.
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00:02:23Big move for bonds.
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00:02:25Looking at the US Dollar Index in another wild week, making a new low for this move,
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00:02:29it's starting to close and trade below the 106.25 level.
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00:02:33We're still stuck to that level, so we haven't broken away just yet.
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00:02:37And of course, lower US dollar is supported for higher stock prices.
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00:02:42Looking at crude oil, crude oil had a wild week.
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00:02:45It got down below $75 before Reversing
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00:02:48ended the week up $3.70. It's up another fifty cents in the Sunday night trading.
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00:02:55Looking at gold.
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00:02:56Gold was up $41.70. 1875 is our next target on the weekly charts.
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00:03:02On the daily charts, our next target is 1843.
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00:03:0575.
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00:03:06And if you look over to the left, you'll see we faded that number back in August.
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00:03:11Now, so far we've seen some very bullish charts for the stock market.
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00:03:15Whether you're looking at a falling VIX or a falling US.
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00:03:18Dollar.
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00:03:19Those are both supported for higher stock prices.
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00:03:21But when you actually look at the stock
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00:03:23market indices themselves, they look like they're running out of steam.
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00:03:27And that's the theme I was going with last weekend.
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00:03:30If we look at the Dow Diamonds ETF, it was up .36 of a percent.
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00:03:35So a little over a third of a percent on the week.
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00:03:37After making a new high, we're trying to break out above 343.
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00:03:4175 and we closed at 344. 74.
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00:03:45So $0.99 above our price target.
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00:03:48Looking at the SPY ETF for the SP 500, our
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00:03:53magic number is 406.25. We closed at 406.91.
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00:03:57Now, these numbers that we're hitting, these are profit targets.
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00:04:00You should be locking in some profits at
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00:04:02these levels, but certainly not completely liquidating a position.
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00:04:07So 406.25. Now, when we look at the daily chart, 406.25 is also a daily target.
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00:04:13We talked about the open gap over here.
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00:04:15That gap was filled this week.
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00:04:17The high from back in September was 411. 73.
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00:04:21We got as high as 410 this week before pulling back on Thursday.
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00:04:26So we'll have to see if we can retest that
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00:04:28September high or if we can break out above it this week, a lot of people were
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00:04:33dancing and screaming that we had broken out above the 200 day moving average.
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00:04:37We haven't really broken away from it.
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00:04:39Yes, we started a trade above it, but we have not broken away from it just yet.
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00:04:44Now, looking at the QQQ's for the Nasdaq 100, we were up just under 2% on the week.
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00:04:50Really no trend here for the tech stocks just yet.
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00:04:53312.50 is our next target to the upside.
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00:04:56And then looking at the Ishares for the
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00:04:58TSX 60, we're up just under a third of a percent on the week.
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00:05:02Our magical number is 31. 25.
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00:05:04We closed at 31. 28.
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00:05:06So just $0.03 above our price target.
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00:05:10Again, we hit this target previously and this is the time and place you should be
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00:05:14locking in some profits on the Ishares for the TSX 60.
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00:05:19Let's finish off today's presentation with a little bit of fun.
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00:05:23This week we are going to see a very interesting astrological event.
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00:05:27It doesn't happen very often if you live in the Northern hemisphere.
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00:05:31We are going to see a new full moon on Wednesday.
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00:05:34That full moon is actually going to line up directly in front of Mars.
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00:05:38And so if you've got a telescope, you can take a look.
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00:05:41It'll be very interesting to watch.
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00:05:43And as many of you know, if you subscribe
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00:05:45to our service, I watch the moon cycles and we plot them on this particular chart.
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00:05:51This is a chart of the TSX.
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00:05:52And as you can see, we are coming up to a new full moon this week.
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00:05:56And if there's a void of information, if
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00:06:00the market does not have a lot of external stimulus, you'll see the market change
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00:06:05direction at either a full moon or a new moon.
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00:06:08It doesn't happen all the time, but it
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00:06:10happens enough that I watch it every single time.
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00:06:13And anytime I'm taking a new swing trade, I'm actually looking at the moon cycles to
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00:06:19see approximately how long I've got in that potential trade.
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00:06:23And if there's no external stimulation,
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00:06:26the market might start to turn direction on the moon cycle.
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00:06:29Now, a moon cycle is not a reason to take action.
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00:06:32It's just getting you mentally prepared
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00:06:35that the market might change direction this week.
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00:06:38And we need to be mentally prepared for that type of event.
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00:06:42Now moon cycles don't always line up
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00:06:45directly because a moon cycle can happen on a weekend in which the market is not
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00:06:49open, and so often they don't directly line up.
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00:06:54But sometimes the market will change direction on the Friday or the Monday, but
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00:06:58not directly on the date of the actual new moon or full moon.
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00:07:03Now of course, the other stimulus that
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00:07:05we're looking at, potential stimulus, is the FED meeting, which is December 14.
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00:07:10And that could be the other catalyst for the market to top at this particular time.
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00:07:15Of course, everybody's trading into the fact that this is a seasonally strong
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00:07:19period, so we want to be prepared for change in direction, but we don't have to
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00:07:23take action beyond taking profits off at profit targets.
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00:07:28And as you've seen this week, we hit a few profit targets once again.
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00:07:32And if you hadn't already done so, this is the time and place where you should lock
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00:07:36in some profits, but certainly not completely liquidate a position.
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00:07:40Okay, folks, that's all for this weekend's presentation.
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00:07:43Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
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00:07:45Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.