Stock Market Timing Television - Weekend Edition 20221113

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Hello, everyone. It's Stephen Whiteside here

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from theuptrend.com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.

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Well if you were with us at this time last

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week, we were focused on what wasn't working.

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The Dow was leading the market higher and we were watching to see if the rest

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of the market would start to catch up or if the market would start to reverse.

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And of the market certainly did some

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catching up this week and what a difference a week makes.

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Now the market moved sharply off

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of the smallest inflation data point and one data point does not make a trend.

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And so one wonders what will happen if we

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get a data point of that size in the opposite direction?

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Will the market move just as swiftly down as it did up this week?

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Well the market action we saw this week

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certainly fits into the seasonality chart where we get a rally in early November

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and then we get some sort of pullback before we head up into December.

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We'll just have to see how that works out.

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Looking at the VIX.

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The VIX has been on the sell signal for the last three weeks and we headed lower.

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So we're going to remain longterm bullish

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on the market as long as the VIX does not close above 30.31 this coming Friday.

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If you're watching it during the week,

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this is the chart we posted last weekend, daily chart of the VIX and we were looking

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for a close above 28.01. That did not happen during the week.

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We made a high on Thursday and then a quick reversal to the downside.

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So on Monday we're looking for a close above 26.58.

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If that were to happen of course that would change our view on the market

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on a short term basis from bullish to bearish.

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Now we have to be quite impressed that the market was able to catch up

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with the seasonality chart this week and put everything back in order.

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I'm not sure how long the market is going to be able to keep that up though we do

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have still have inflation to deal with and the oncoming recession

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and central banks are still raising rates around the world.

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So I don't think that's going to change any time soon.

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So just like any other week, you take it one week at a time.

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This week is bullish,

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next week could be bearish and we could see a change in trend.

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We'll just have to take it as we always do, one week at a time.

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Now we were watching the Dow Diamonds lead in the market higher.

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It broke through the October highs,

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the September highs, and now it's heading up towards the August highs.

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Now the rest of the market is playing

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catch up and we're looking at daily charts here that you can see.

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The SPY ETF actually joined the party

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on Thursday and broke through the October highs.

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Now the next target that we have.

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Mathematical target is 400 and 625.

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But to get there we have to get over

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the big round number of 400 and we got as high as 399.35 on Friday.

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So if we can break through 400, 406.25 is our next target to the upside.

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And then above that you can see we peaked

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in September up there at 411.73 and then quickly reversed.

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Looking at the QQQ's,

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they also joined the party on Thursday, broke out above the October highs,

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heading towards the areas that we haven't traded since September.

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And we're looking at our next price target

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of 296.88 and of course just above that is the $300 target.

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Looking at the Ishares for the TSX 60 trading, pretty much like the Dow diamonds

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at the moment, heading up towards those August highs, our mathematical target is

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31.25, but we veered away from that in August getting as high as 31.20.

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So just keep that in mind,

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that's our next big target to the upside for the Canadian market.

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Now last week at this time we were talking about the fact that the Energy sector has

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been such a great performer this year, but it is far more important

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to the Canadian market than the US market at this time.

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Currently the energy sector is only 3% of the SP 500 while it's 13.5% of the TSX.

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Now going back in time,

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going back to the energy sector was a much bigger component of the S&P 500 way

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back when it was almost like the technology sector today.

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But times have changed.

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There's been a lot of consolidation

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in the energy sector over time and things priorities have changed,

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the technology sector has become far more

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important to the economy than the energy sector in the US.

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Of course the energy companies in the US

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a lot of them are global, so they're much bigger than the energy

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companies in Canada which tend to be a lot more local.

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Now, what worked this week and what didn't work well?

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What worked in the Canadian market?

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Well, it was the gold sector up nearly 12% for the week.

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Then we've got it the technology sector up

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just under 11% and then we've got the healthcare sector,

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which of course includes the cannabis stocks, up nearly 9% on the week.

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What didn't work well, energy stocks were down but also clean.

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Technology stocks were down 2% on the week.

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Looking at the US market, well,

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semiconductors led the way up by 12.57%.

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That's a good sign going forward.

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If we can take out those August highs then we're looking at housing which was up, 12.1%.

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And then we're looking at the XAU up 10.44% for the week.

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Next up, let's take a look at those megatrends.

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And one of them did end this week

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and that was the US Dollar index, down 4.14% on the week.

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That's a huge move for currency.

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And then a lot of currencies around the world headed in the opposite direction.

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Whether you're looking at the Australian

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Dollar, the British pound, Canadian Dollar,

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there's the Euro up of corresponding 14%, Japanese yen up nearly 6% on the week.

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That is a huge move and there's a nice big move for the Swiss franc.

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Now, bonds were also higher this week,

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no major trend change so far for the XBB in Canada, the TLT.

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Now we talked about the merging market

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bonds, they were leading the market higher last week and we are back on a buy signal

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for emerging market bonds, but not for the junk bonds.

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Still waiting for a close above 91.53.

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Then looking at commodities,

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we had pullback in crude oil down 3.6%, still trading along the 87.50 level,

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we closed at 88.16, so we're still not able to break out.

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There's no trend going on in crude oil at the moment.

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There's still a trend for natural gas and unfortunately it's to the downside.

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The only bullish thing is we haven't made

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a new low in three weeks and so we're down 7.66%.

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And there's the price of copper up on the week, up 4.35% 2nd week in a row.

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Then we had the gold up the $68.0.50 on the week and that is of course

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the following silver which has been up for the last couple of weeks.

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So there's all the metals up on the week.

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Moving on to bitcoin and ethereum, they are down sharply this week,

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down 24% and change for bitcoin, down 26.7% for ethereum.

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I don't recommend any of these cryptocurrencies.

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If I was 40, 50 years younger I might

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consider them, but they're not something I'm really interested in.

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The reason I'm telling you this is because people often ask me questions

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and my opinion and I really don't have much of opinion on the crypto currencies.

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Now let's finish off with the one chart to watch, and that is the US Dollar index

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had a major move down this week and every time it's moved down in 2022,

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we've got a corresponding up move in the stock market.

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And so what we've seen recently is back

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in September we made a high, then we made a series of lower highs

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and lower lows and this week we actually broke down.

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And so as the US Dollar has been coming down, the stock market has been going up.

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So I think the US Dollar is the one chart to watch and of course if that changes

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this week, that could also change the direction of the stock market.

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OK folks, that's all for this weekend's presentation.

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It was a memorable week, one of the best weeks we've seen in a couple of years.

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Of course, we're going to look to see what kind of follow through we get this week.

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If we got a small pullback or an inside week, that wouldn't be a big deal.

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Of course, the first sign that something went wrong is if we start closing below

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the previous week's low, that would be certainly a concern.

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Or if we saw a big move in the VIX to the upside, that would also be a concern.

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But otherwise, we're going to follow

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the money and see how far it can take us into the year end.

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Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

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