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00:00:00Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Super
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00:00:03Bowl Sunday edition of Stock Market Timing Television.
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00:00:07Not a lot new to ponder this week.
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00:00:09The market US markets had an inside week,
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00:00:12whether we're looking at the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100.
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00:00:15So not a lot of damage was done.
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00:00:18We'll talk about resistance later in the presentation.
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00:00:21The Canadian market was down on the week, but no major change range there.
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00:00:25We actually closed within the previous week's range.
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00:00:28A couple of things that could affect the market this week.
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00:00:31We've got CPI numbers on Tuesday and then February options expire on Friday, and
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00:00:38either of those could add to market volatility this week.
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00:00:42Now, speaking of volatility.
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00:00:43The VIX moved up on the week. It was up 12% on the weekly chart.
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00:00:48We need to close this coming Friday above 23.03 to give us a new buy signal.
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00:00:53Of course, that would tell us that options traders are getting a little wary of the
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00:00:58market and we're starting to act defensively.
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00:01:01On the daily chart, you can see the VIX generated a buy signal on Thursday.
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00:01:05On Friday, we actually moved up to
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00:01:07resistance and then pulled back and actually closed slightly lower on the day.
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00:01:12So we're looking for a breakout above 21. 88.
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00:01:15On the downside on Monday, we're looking
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00:01:17for a close below 18.70 to get us back on track and tell us that options traders are
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00:01:23not that scared of what's going to happen next.
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00:01:25Now, we were watching the US dollar index, which was up last week, it was up again
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00:01:29this week, and we're still on a sell signal here.
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00:01:32But a higher US dollar may not be helpful for the stock market.
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00:01:36Bonds continued to move lower this week and bond yields were up.
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00:01:39The yield on the 30 year bond was up just under five and a half percent.
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00:01:43If that trend continues, that could also hurt the stock market, a sign that some
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00:01:48risk money came out of the market this week.
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00:01:50We saw bitcoin pull back just over seven
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00:01:54and a half percent, and we're seeing a daily sell signal
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00:01:58for bitcoin on Thursday and some fall through to the downside on Friday.
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00:02:03Looking at the daily charts, the Ishares for the TSX 60 still on a buy signal.
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00:02:08Similar situation for the Dow diamonds,
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00:02:11the SPY ETF, and the queues for the Nasdaq 100.
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00:02:14So we saw some weakness this week, but we
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00:02:17did not end the week on daily sell signals.
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00:02:20Now, last week we talked about resistance, and all the resistance is still holding.
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00:02:24Whether you're looking at the Dow, the
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00:02:26Nasdaq 100, the Russell 2000, the SOX Index, or the TSX 60, we did not punch
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00:02:33through or close above any of those resistance levels this week.
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00:02:37Now, not everything is stuck at resistance at the moment.
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00:02:40If we look at the TSX itself, it's halfway between two price targets.
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00:02:45And what we're going to be watching for is
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00:02:46if we do get a pullback here, we could pull back to 20,000, use that as support
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00:02:51and that would not break the nice uptrend line.
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00:02:54If we start breaking the uptrend line then
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00:02:56the more it breaks, the more we're going to get long term bearish on the market.
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00:03:01Now the S&P 500 is still stuck to the 4062.
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00:03:0450 level and if we take out last week's
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00:03:08high this week, that could be the sign that we're going to head up and retest.
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00:03:12First of all, we'd have to retest the summer lows before we get to 4375.
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00:03:18And again we'll be watching for any
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00:03:20pullback because this is a bullish chart here.
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00:03:22We've got a higher low and a higher high that's bullish.
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00:03:26And if we get a pullback, do we hold the
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00:03:28nice uptrend line or do we start to break it?
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00:03:32Let's take a look at weekly commodity prices.
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00:03:34We saw copper pull back again back in the
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00:03:37channel, so still on a weekly sell signal, that has not changed.
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00:03:40Gold still on a weekly sell signal.
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00:03:43Now oddly enough, gold was just down a $1.30 on the week.
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00:03:46So we had a bearish reversal week last week.
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00:03:49We continued to trade lower that's
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00:03:51bearish, but we are stuck at 1875, closing at 1876.
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00:03:5540.
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00:03:56And you can see below if we continue to move lower this week, 1812.
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00:04:0050 and 1750 are the next two targets to the downside.
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00:04:05Now silver continued to move lower this
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00:04:08week, so that's not a good sign for gold and it's certainly not a good sign for the
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00:04:11mining stocks if we've got copper, gold and silver all trading lower.
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00:04:17Looking at energy, starting with crude oil, crude oil was up nearly 7% on the
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00:04:21week, but for crude oil that's not that dramatic and we're still on a sell signal.
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00:04:26Things would change this week with a close above 79.
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00:04:2848.
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00:04:29Natural gas has not shown any sign of upward momentum but it is holding support
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00:04:35at 2.34. And so this is the time and place we look for a turnaround in natural gas.
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00:04:41So far we haven't seen any real indication.
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00:04:45The first sign of course, would be a close
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00:04:47above that previous week's high and that has yet to happen.
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00:04:51So thinking positive thoughts for natural gas at the moment.
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00:04:55Okay folks, let's finish off this
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00:04:57weekend's presentation with a couple of stocks to watch.
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00:05:00We've seen a pullback in some of the major winners for the past month or so and we've
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00:05:05seen a pullback in Apple, Microsoft and Tesla.
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00:05:09So now we're looking to see if we see fall through to the downside this week and that
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00:05:13would certainly be negative for the markets if that were to happen.
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00:05:16I was also going to include shopify in this list but it actually rolled over on
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00:05:20Friday, so got a new sell signal for shopify.
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00:05:23Of course before you take any buy signal
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00:05:25or sell signal, you want to check to see what's happening in the pre market.
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00:05:29If it's not trading in the pre market,
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00:05:31then go into your brokerage account and see what the bid and ask is.
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00:05:34Just make sure there's not a major
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00:05:36discrepancy between Friday's close and Mondays open.
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00:05:40A lot of times stocks can get buy signals
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00:05:42and sell signals on misinformation or misunderstanding or rumors or outright
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00:05:47lies, and that can be corrected overnight or over the weekend.
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00:05:51You just want to make sure that things are
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00:05:54what's happening on Monday morning is pretty similar to what happened on Friday.
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00:05:58Of course, if it's bidding higher on
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00:06:00Monday but not that much higher, we're not up at the 68.17 level.
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00:06:04The fact that it's actually bidding higher
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00:06:06on Monday morning is good for you because you want to sell it.
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00:06:10So you're going to get to sell it at a higher price.
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00:06:12So don't stop taking a sell signal because it's bidding up slightly in the pre
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00:06:18market, but certainly ignore a sell signal if it's up dramatically in the pre market.
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00:06:23Okay folks, that's all for this weekend's presentation.
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00:06:26Just a reminder that this educational
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00:06:29video has been translated into the following languages.
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00:06:32If you need access to the translated versions of video, please come to our
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00:06:37website and sign up to our free video newsletter.
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00:06:41That way you'll get access to the translated versions as well.
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00:06:45Unfortunately, due to logistics, the
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00:06:47translated versions are not available through YouTube, Twitter or Facebook.
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00:06:51Have a great time tonight.
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00:06:53Don't eat too much, don't drink too much, and I hope your team wins.
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00:06:57Next time you'll hear my voice will be on Tuesday morning.